509
FXUS64 KOHX 031700
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1200 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

**Dangerously hot conditions today and 4th of July**
**Heat advisory in effect from 1 PM today through 7 PM Thursday**

Temperatures are already in the mid to upper 80s across most of
Middle Tennessee this morning with dew point temperatures in the
70s. This is setting the stage for a dangerously hot and
uncomfortable afternoon as heat index values are forecast to reach
into the 105-110 range. If you must be outdoors today, it is
encouraged that you stay hydrated, wear light clothing, and take
frequent breaks in order to prevent heat-related illness. The only
chance for a break in the heat is if any thunderstorms develop.
Rain and thunderstorm chances overall are quite low today as
storms will be more of the pop-up variety with a greater chance of
them occuring along and north of I-40. With the heat+humidity
combo, instability values will reach near 2000 J/kg this
afternoon, so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out. On the plus side, mid-level lapse rates and shear
values are overall low, thus limiting any widespread severe
potential.

For the 4th of July, heat will be the major concern. With the
combination of the air temperature in the mid 90s and humidity as
high as it is, heat index values are once again forecast to reach
into the 100-110 degree range during the afternoon. Rain and
thunderstorm chances do return tomorrow and will likely be more
widespread than today thanks to a front that will be stalling out
over the area. Still, though, the overall severe threat is limited
due to poor lapse rates and lower values of wind shear. Still
cannot rule out a strong to marginally severe storm, though. Any
stronger storms that do develop will have the potential to produce
frequent lightning, very heavy rain, and gusty winds. So be
prepared to temporarily move indoors should a storm move over your
area tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Models continue to show the majority of thunderstorm activity
dwindling down to hardly anything after 7pm tomorrow night.
Hopefully this holds so evening outdoor plans can stay on. Rain
and thunderstorms will resume overnight ahead of a cold front that
will be trekking this way. Friday will likely be our rainiest day
as the cold front moves into the area. This is in response to a
deep upper-level low that will be moving across the Great Lakes.
We will get some relief from the oppressive heat, though, with
the rain and clouds. Highs Friday are forecast to be in the upper
80s. As we move into the weekend, the cold front will exit our
area Saturday morning, bringing a temporary end to the precip
through Sunday. While it will sill be hot, dew point temperatures
will thankfully be much cooler (near 10-15 degrees cooler than
right now), so the feel-like temperature will be very close to the
actual temperature, which will be near 90 degrees. With the
arrival of the new week comes a change in our upper-air pattern
that will bring us more favorable conditions for rain. This is
good news because we will be getting a break from the heat we`ve
been dealing with. Rain and thunderstorm chances are in each day
next week, but there is no severe potential at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions expected at all sites this period. Scattered to
broken cumulus are forecast to develop throughout the day today.
Showers and a few storms may approach CKV, but activity looks to
be too isolated to mention in the taf. South winds will increase
throughout the afternoon and then subside overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      98  78  96  78 /  10  10  50  70
Clarksville    95  76  93  74 /  20  30  60  80
Crossville     89  70  89  71 /  10  10  40  70
Columbia       97  76  97  76 /  10  10  50  70
Cookeville     91  74  91  73 /  10  10  50  70
Jamestown      90  72  89  72 /  10  10  50  70
Lawrenceburg   95  75  96  75 /   0   0  40  60
Murfreesboro   97  76  97  76 /  10  10  40  70
Waverly        96  76  94  75 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Whitehead