051
FXUS64 KOHX 070511
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1211 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Clouds clearing out over the Middle Tennesse area. Winds are
expected to shift to a more north easterly wind direction while
still remaining light. Patchy fog over Cumberland Plateau from
06Z till after sunrise is expected. No major forecast changes
were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Some high clouds continue to stream into the area at forecast time,
especially over the western half. Those east of I-65 are just now
starting to reach convective temperatures, which means cu fields are
starting to develop. PoPs this afternoon remain at 10% or less and
with the inversion at 800 mb on this morning`s OHX sounding there`s
no reason to increase them, even for an extremely isolated pinhead
shower or two that might develop east of I-65 today. Temperatures
might be running a touch ahead of the overnight forecast, but with
slightly lower dew points filtering in from the north, feels-like
temps should remain below triple digits. Similar conditions are
expected tomorrow with 10% or less PoPs and afternoon highs in the
low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Things start to change on Monday, however. Southerly boundary layer
flow kicks in and icky dew points return. That means low triple
digit Heat Index values will return to the mid-state. In addition,
rain chances start creeping back into the forecast. With the
Bermuda high back over the Atlantic, a trough approaching from the
northwest and Beryl making landfall in TX Monday morning, rain
chances will increase precipitously (see what I did there?) Monday
night, Tuesday and right into the day on Wednesday. Current WPC
guidance runs 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across the mid-state. For
now, this is acceptable as ensembles show less than 10% chance of
more than that, but we will need to watch this closely over the
next couple of days as we figure out the path of Beryl`s remnants.

After Wednesday, rain chances don`t disappear from the forecast as
Middle TN remains in kind of a convergence zone between a trough to
our north and the ridge to our east. This should keep a minimum 30
to 50% PoP in the forecast through the remainder of next week. With
the general troughiness, though, that means we should hover near
more normal temperatures for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Fog potential is overall
low tonight but maybe some patchy fog in the vicinity of KSRB
between 09 and 12z. Light northerly winds 6 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  73  96  75 /   0  10  20  20
Clarksville    90  69  92  73 /   0   0  10  30
Crossville     89  67  89  68 /  10  10  20  20
Columbia       94  71  94  73 /   0  10  20  20
Cookeville     89  69  90  70 /   0  10  20  20
Jamestown      88  67  90  69 /   0  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   93  70  93  72 /   0  10  20  20
Murfreesboro   95  71  96  73 /   0  10  20  20
Waverly        91  69  92  72 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Mueller