Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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300 FXUS64 KOHX 032313 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 613 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 **Dangerously hot conditions today and 4th of July** **Heat advisory in effect from 1 PM today through 7 PM Thursday** Temperatures are already in the mid to upper 80s across most of Middle Tennessee this morning with dew point temperatures in the 70s. This is setting the stage for a dangerously hot and uncomfortable afternoon as heat index values are forecast to reach into the 105-110 range. If you must be outdoors today, it is encouraged that you stay hydrated, wear light clothing, and take frequent breaks in order to prevent heat-related illness. The only chance for a break in the heat is if any thunderstorms develop. Rain and thunderstorm chances overall are quite low today as storms will be more of the pop-up variety with a greater chance of them occuring along and north of I-40. With the heat+humidity combo, instability values will reach near 2000 J/kg this afternoon, so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. On the plus side, mid-level lapse rates and shear values are overall low, thus limiting any widespread severe potential. For the 4th of July, heat will be the major concern. With the combination of the air temperature in the mid 90s and humidity as high as it is, heat index values are once again forecast to reach into the 100-110 degree range during the afternoon. Rain and thunderstorm chances do return tomorrow and will likely be more widespread than today thanks to a front that will be stalling out over the area. Still, though, the overall severe threat is limited due to poor lapse rates and lower values of wind shear. Still cannot rule out a strong to marginally severe storm, though. Any stronger storms that do develop will have the potential to produce frequent lightning, very heavy rain, and gusty winds. So be prepared to temporarily move indoors should a storm move over your area tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Models continue to show the majority of thunderstorm activity dwindling down to hardly anything after 7pm tomorrow night. Hopefully this holds so evening outdoor plans can stay on. Rain and thunderstorms will resume overnight ahead of a cold front that will be trekking this way. Friday will likely be our rainiest day as the cold front moves into the area. This is in response to a deep upper-level low that will be moving across the Great Lakes. We will get some relief from the oppressive heat, though, with the rain and clouds. Highs Friday are forecast to be in the upper 80s. As we move into the weekend, the cold front will exit our area Saturday morning, bringing a temporary end to the precip through Sunday. While it will sill be hot, dew point temperatures will thankfully be much cooler (near 10-15 degrees cooler than right now), so the feel-like temperature will be very close to the actual temperature, which will be near 90 degrees. With the arrival of the new week comes a change in our upper-air pattern that will bring us more favorable conditions for rain. This is good news because we will be getting a break from the heat we`ve been dealing with. Rain and thunderstorm chances are in each day next week, but there is no severe potential at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A warm, humid and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place through the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will remain in place this evening with light south winds. A stray shower or storm could occur although probs are too low to include in the tafs. Coverage of showers/storms will be greater Thursday with short range models focusing on 20-24Z. VCTS will be included for all tafs, and tempo groups will also be included for BNA/CKV/MQY where HREF shows a bubble of >80 percent probs late afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 79 96 77 92 / 10 50 50 90 Clarksville 76 92 75 88 / 30 60 50 80 Crossville 71 90 71 86 / 10 40 50 100 Columbia 76 97 75 92 / 10 50 50 90 Cookeville 74 91 73 87 / 10 50 50 100 Jamestown 72 89 72 85 / 10 50 60 100 Lawrenceburg 75 95 75 90 / 0 50 50 90 Murfreesboro 76 97 75 92 / 10 50 50 90 Waverly 76 94 75 89 / 10 50 50 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston- Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry- Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne- Williamson-Wilson. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....13