Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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766 FXUS64 KOHX 041731 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Happy 4th of July, Middle Tennessee! A heat advisory remains in effect through 7pm tonight, so if outdoors today, it is encouraged to stay hydrated with water, wear light clothing, and take frequent breaks. Outside of the heat, the Independence day forecast for storms looks to have improved over the last 24 hours. We`ve been monitoring a complex of thunderstorms associated with a shortwave trough across western Kentucky this morning. Those storms will stay north of Tennessee, however, any outflow boundaries that may push out from those storms will serve as a trigger mechanism for scattered thunderstorms to fire along. Models continue to show ample CAPE across the area this afternoon with values reaching near 2000 J/kg. This is no surprise with how hot it is and how warm our dew points temperatures are. The other parameters of interest are shear and mid-level lapse rates, which both appear to stay on the lower side today, meaning severe thunderstorm potential will be limited. So what it comes down to is we`ll be watching for thunderstorms to pop-up along any boundaries hanging over the area this afternoon. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to dump very heavy rain with PWAT values nearing 2" this afternoon, produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. As we move into the evening hours, thunderstorm chances greatly diminish as instability values tank with loss of daytime heating and any lingering boundaries move out of the area. A cold front will push through Friday in response to a deep upper- level low kicking out that aforementioned shortwave. Rain and thunderstorm chances will fire back up overnight tonight into the early morning hours Friday and will become more widespread across the area as the day progresses. Models aren`t showing much in the way of severe potential, but an isolated strong storm or two is possible late morning. The biggest thing with this front is that it will provide us with a much needed break from the heat. Increased cloud cover and rain will push temperatures down into the upper 80s tomorrow with drier air filtering in after frontal passage Friday evening. Drier air = lower relative humidity. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 We will be on the back side of the trough come Saturday and this will continue to usher in sinking, cooler air. It will no doubt still be warm with highs both Saturday and Sunday in the upper 80s for most and low 90s for some, but with the drier air being present, the feel-like temperature will be much closer to the actual temperature as dew point temperatures drop back into the low 60s. As we move into the second week of July, winds will turn back out of the south Monday due to a trough building in from an upper-level low over the Midwest. This will bring moisture back into the area as well as rain and thunderstorm chances. These chances will stay in the forecast each day next week and will generally be on the low-to-medium (30-50%) side each day. Models show our mid-level winds turning westerly during the week and this will aid in streaming in disturbances throughout the week. As of now, nothing alarming in terms of severe potential in the long term. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Scattered storms could impact the terminals this afternoon. VCTS was used during the best time frame. A tempo group was included at CKV/BNA/MQY where chances are slightly higher. Visibilities could be reduced to IFR if a terminal is impacted by a storm. Storm coverage will decrease this evening. Some models bring a line of showers and storms into Middle Tennessee from west to east close to dawn into Friday morning. Confidence in this solution is not high so VCSH was only included at this point. Winds will be out of the SW/SSW this afternoon between 5-10 kts. Winds will decrease below 5 kts this evening. Winds will shift to the W Friday morning and increase to 5-10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 77 91 70 90 / 60 90 30 0 Clarksville 75 88 67 87 / 70 60 10 0 Crossville 71 86 65 85 / 40 90 50 10 Columbia 75 91 67 90 / 40 90 30 0 Cookeville 73 85 67 84 / 50 90 50 10 Jamestown 72 84 65 83 / 50 90 50 10 Lawrenceburg 75 90 67 89 / 30 90 40 10 Murfreesboro 76 92 68 90 / 50 90 50 0 Waverly 73 88 67 88 / 70 70 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston- Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry- Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne- Williamson-Wilson. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Reagan