Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
973 FXUS64 KOHX 060655 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 155 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Quite a bit of cloudiness is still around this morning. The lower level moisture is taking it`s time scouring out. Those lower to mid 60s dewpoints are still up in the IL and IN areas. So dewpoint spreads are rather low this morning, particularly across the east. Could still see some patchy fog development toward sunrise so will watch for that. For today, both a surface high and a broad upper level trough will be the primary influence. Models still keep some of the high level cloudiness around through the short term period but we will get some of those lowering dewpoints in here by this afternoon. In fact, the NBM yields lower 60s dewpoints through Sunday afternoon. It should remain dry with cape values minimal and negative cape dominance prevailing. We will begin to see a change on Monday, so we must first discuss Hurricane Beryl. He`s expected to make landfall along the TX coast as a cat 1 on Monday, near or close to Corpus. To the north, mid and upper level trough amplification will be under way with the axis over the central US. Favorable cape to cap ratios will return for our area and we`ll see some low pops return. For the near term temps, it will be comparatively great when considering the hideous heat and humidity that we`ve been enduring. Lower 90s for highs, paired with lower 60s dewpoints will much more tolerable. Nighttime lows will be near 70 with some 60s possible as well. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 In the extended forecast, The Euro has switched gears and is much more aggressive with the upper trough amplification over the central US. Therefore, it`s more in line with the gfs and brings Beryl`s remains much closer to our neck of the woods by Wednesday. the NBM/builder qpf totals have ticked upwards so we will need to watch the trend as conditions could get progressively wetter for the extended period. Otherwise, maximum pops in the likely category will peak on Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, WPC does show 5-day precip totals of 2 inches now reaching into our area. Thursday and Friday will contain lower pops but chances will still remain as a uniform southerly flow resides. For the extended temps, not too bad as the expected moisture from Beryl keeps our highs in the 85 to 90 degree range. Low temps will generally hang out in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Overall we will see VFR conditions for the TAF period. Patchy fog will be possible tonight mainly for the eastern terminals and may bring periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Light northerly winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 69 94 73 / 0 0 0 10 Clarksville 88 67 90 69 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 86 63 89 67 / 10 0 10 10 Columbia 91 67 94 71 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 86 66 89 69 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 85 64 88 68 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 91 67 92 71 / 0 0 10 10 Murfreesboro 92 67 94 72 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 88 67 91 69 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Mueller