647
FXUS63 KOAX 052240
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
540 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated river levels linger on the Missouri River from
  Nebraska City and and points downstream, and should continue
  to lower through the weekend.

- Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be
  possible late Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures remain below or near seasonal normals through the
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts broad troughing in place
across much of the central CONUS with a building ridge over the West
Coast and eroding ridging along the East Coast in anticipation of
the aforementioned trough. A recent surface analysis depicts a
surface low over Lake Michigan, dragging a cold front south then
southwest across the mid-Mississippi Valley into and then through
central Texas. Behind the front, a confluent zone stretching from
north-central North Dakota to northwest Iowa has resulted in locally
higher dewpoints of 60 degrees or more despite being in the post-
frontal part of the system to the east. Shallow cumulus speckle
visible satellite imagery with deeper convection developing in
that aforementioned moist/confluent zone. Isolated to scattered
rain chances carry us through the early part of the evening,
primary in western Iowa where there`s a 20 to 25% chances of
showers and storms grazing our far eastern counties. Through the
rest of the day, we`ll hit our cooler-than-average highs in the
upper 70s to just over 80 degrees and see winds die down
considerably overnight. Those calm winds and leftover moisture
do open up the door for some possibility of fog, but it isn`t
quite a consistent signal, and any areas that do get foggy will
be largely limited to portions of Iowa.

Saturday and Sunday:

By Saturday morning, elevate convection is depicted by many of the
CAM solutions in central Nebraska, powered by low-level jet nosing
pointed into a more moist airmass and as a result realizing
elevated instability. This initial activity should remain
relatively weak through the morning before daytime heating and
increased instability take hold, with additional storms likely
developing to the south and west into northwest Kansas. These
storms will likely grow upscale and form a line of storms as it
moves eastward. Steep mid-level lapse rates indicate that hail
will be one of the primary threats joined by damaging wind
thanks to large temperature/dewpoint spreads and the resultant
higher DCAPE. As of right now, the primary window for those
strong to severe storms appears to be from 3 to 9 PM. Additional
showers and storms continue to be possible Sunday for a good
chunk of the day, this time forced by the arriving mid/upper
shortwave with a 50-70% likelihood. Thankfully, all of
Saturday/Sundays showers and storms appear to be rather
progressive and as a result flooding due to heavy rain appears
unlikely.

Monday and Beyond:

Monday through the rest of the work week will see the wester half of
the jet stream slacken while a southwesterly jet streak persists,
pointed from Kansas/Missouri northeastward into the Great Lakes
region. We`ll see temperatures go from a cooler Monday in the upper
70s to low 80s into a warming trend with upper 80s expected by mid-
to-late week. With nothing strong frontally to scour out the area,
we`ll likely see daily popcorn/pulse rain and storms chances
somewhere in the area, though one location may not see rain due to
the smaller nature of them. Regardless, we`ll be able to hit our
stride locally and enjoy a stretch of summer that isn`t too hot, and
isn`t washed out so make the most of it!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A shallow cumulus field at FL050 will diminish later this
evening. Northwesterly winds will calm overnight and gradually
shift counterclockwise to southwesterly and eventually
southerly. Rain and storms will push into the area towards the
end of the forecast period, likely reaching KOFK around 20-22Z.
Storms are expected to reach KOMA and KLNK just after the
forecast period. These times will likely be adjusted with future
TAF issuances.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Wood