450
FXUS63 KOAX 061112
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
612 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated river levels linger on the Missouri River from
  Nebraska City and and points downstream, and should continue
  to lower through the weekend.

- Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be
  possible late Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures remain below or near seasonal normals through
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Today and Sunday...

Skies remained mostly clear overnight, with a bit of patchy fog
developing over parts of southwest Iowa. By 3 AM, temperatures
had dropped into the mid 50s to low 60s.

Shortwave energy moving southeast through the northern plains today
will bring out next chance for precipitation.  By early afternoon,
convection over north-central Nebraska will push east into eastern
Nebraska and grow upscale. Initial elevated convection could muddle
severe chances over parts of northeast Nebraska and western Iowa,
with a better chance for strong to severe storms developing across
central Nebraska, in a region of steeper lapse rates. Initially,
large hail will be the main threat before cells merge into a
line and become more capable of producing damaging winds. The
latest CAM runs are in remarkably good agreement in the
evolution of these storms, with The window for the greatest
threat of severe storms across our forecast area between 3 PM
and 10 PM this evening. Heavy rain will be possible within any
of the stronger storms, however the progressive nature of the
line should help limit flash flooding potential.

Spotty showers and storms will be possible through Sunday and Sunday
night as the shortwave continues to pivot through the central
plains. Thankfully, severe storm potential looks to remain low at
this time.

Monday and Beyond...

High pressure will settle into the western CONUS this week,
resulting in a gradual rise in temperatures through the remainder of
the forecast period. Highs in the 70s and 80s this weekend will
increase a few degrees each day, potentially reaching the 90s by
next weekend.

Diurnally driven, pulsey showers and thunderstorms will be possible
in the afternoons most days. However, kept precip chances to Slight
at best, given the isolated to widely scattered coverage expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Main forecast concern will be a line of strong to severe storms
expected to move through this afternoon/evening. Trends have
been toward slightly later arrival time with increasing chances
of at least 30 to 40 kt gusts, though timing may still need some
slight adjustment in future forecasts. In addition, some pieces
of guidance hint at spotty shower and storm development by early
afternoon ahead of the main line, though confidence in this
occurring, much less impacting a TAF site is too low to include
at this time. Outside of storms expect VFR conditions and
southerly winds generally under 10 kts through most of the
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA