829
FXUS63 KOAX 070452
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1152 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of strong storms is on track to move through
  southeastern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa early this
  evening, bringing chances for damaging wind, hail and an
  outside chance (less than 5%) for a tornado along and south of
  Interstate 80.

- Elevated river levels linger on the Missouri River from
  Nebraska City and and points downstream, and should continue
  to lower through the weekend.

- Temperatures remain below or near seasonal normals through
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Today:

GOES IR imagery this afternoon alongside regional radars shows
strong convection ongoing across south-central Nebraska into
northwest Kansas with damaging hail, wind gusts, and several funnel
reports with a lead supercell in NWS Hastings` area. An 18z surface
analysis shows a surface low located in far southwest Nebraska with
a warm front/differential heating boundary extending ENE across
southern Nebraska before washing out in eastern Nebraska. The
ongoing convection to the west of the forecast area is still on
track to congeal into a larger cluster of storms, moving eastward
based on nearly westerly Corfidi propagation vectors.
Reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates extend about halfway into
the forecast area from the west and sufficient CAPE and
effective shear support this cluster or bow of storms to
continue eastward eastern Nebraska, limited on the north end by
leftover cloud debris and cooler temperatures as a result of
limited daytime heating. What is most likely is that this
congealed bow or cluster of storms moves through southeast
Nebraska, staying along and south of Interstate 80 passing
Lincoln between 6 and 8 PM, potentially clipping the Omaha Metro
between 7 and 8 PM, and then into northwest Missouri and far
southwest Iowa between 7 and 9 PM while weakening over time.
Wind gusts as strong as 70 mph will be possible alongside
quarter-sized hail, with an outside chance of a tornado embedded
in the line as it passes Saline/Seward/Lancaster Counties.

By the time the storms system has passed through the area, it`ll be
around 10 PM with a few light showers trailing the main line of
storms to the east with a cooler night in store with lows expected
to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. After midnight, the low-level
just is expected to be in full swing with it nosing across eastern
Nebraska and Iowa, where light rain and a few rumbles of thunder
will bring light rain to portions of the area heading into Sunday.

Sunday and Beyond:

By mid-Sunday morning, scattered shower activity with a few
areas of embedded thunder are expected to continue at least into
the early afternoon, largely powered by the incoming cold front
and stronger mid-level shortwave pivoting southeast. We`ll be
pretty limited in terms of instability and shear, though some
areas of small hail are possible during the afternoon hours with
the strongest storms. Any remaining light shower/storm activity
is expected to be out of the area by around midnight Sunday
night, leaving drier conditions heading into next week.

By Monday, a southwesterly jet streak will be pointing from eastern
Kansas and Missouri and will be largely locked into place
through the rest of the work week. We`ll see temperatures
rebound from the relatively cool upper 70s on Sunday to the
mid/upper 80s on Friday, with no really strong front at the
surface to scour out the remaining moisture left across the
forecast area. As a result, well see near daily chances for very
isolated pulse storms commonly seen during the late summer.
While those chances will be daily, they aren`t expected to be
widespread and shouldn`t be a large hurdle for summertime
activities during this stretch of nice weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Generally light and variable winds are anticipated through the
TAF period with dry conditions forecast through about mid-day on
Sunday. Have left OFK dry with VCSH forecast through the entire
afternoon and evening at LNK and OMA. However, confidence is not
high for either spacial coverage and timing. Expect future TAF
issuance to narrow it down.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen