Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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749 FXUS63 KOAX 072345 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 645 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated river levels linger on the Missouri River at Rulo and and points downstream, and should lower below Minor flood stage early Monday. - Quarter-sized hail and a brief funnel are possible with storms through early evening north of a line from Albion to Tekamah through 9 PM. - After a nice work week temperature-wise, dangerous heat becomes increasingly possible this Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Today: Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows broad troughing in place over much of the central CONUS, with ridging over both the East and West Coasts. A recent surface analysis places a weak front draped across north-central into northeast Nebraska, then northwest Iowa into far northwestern Wisconsin. Pooled moisture along this boundary has resulted in developing convection that is slowly meandering into northeast Nebraska along that front. Withing the vicinity of the weak boundary, there is some potential for the realization of the low-level vorticity to be stretched by a strong enough storm, but chances decrease as you move farther east from north-central to northeast Nebraska due to higher cloud debris limiting daytime heading and resultant lapse rates. Nonetheless, sufficient instability despite limited shear exists for small to quarter- sized hail primarily in northeast Nebraska this afternoon and early evening. To the south of those storms, a few sprinkles are possible but have looked decreasingly likely as we`ve moved through the day, and any remaining chances for them diminishes by 10 PM. Monday and Beyond: By Monday, models have shown high consistency in the upper pattern for the upcoming week in the form a persistent jet streak extending northeast from KS/MO. We`ll find ourselves with temperatures that go from the low 80s Monday and Tuesday to the mid-to-upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday. We won`t be completely scoured out by any front during this period, and will have to be on the lookout for afternoon pulse thunderstorms during this period, with our best chances at seeing rain coming in the form of a weak shortwave diving south out of South Dakota Wednesday (with the ECMWF being the most bullish on this solution). Looking towards the end of the period, Friday into next weekend will likely see the stagnant mid/upper begin to break down with ridging and increasing temperatures moving back in in the 90s. As it looks right now, Sunday seems to have the highest chances of dangerous heat, and could warrant some sort of warning/advisory but we are a long way out for that at this point. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the area this afternoon and evening and are anticipated to generally work west to east before tapering off around sunset. Otherwise, weak northwesterly winds of 5-10 knots are anticipated through the remainder of the TAF period with VFR cigs forecast for Monday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Nicolaisen