Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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087 FXUS63 KOAX 042014 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 314 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated shower or storm still possible in northeast NE and southwest IA early this evening. - Another system will bring the chance for scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms Saturday evening and night. - Temperatures remain below or near seasonal normals through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The storm threat has diminished for late this afternoon into the early evening, although a stray shower or isolated non severe thunderstorm still appears possible in western IA through about 7 pm. And there could still be a shower or storm in northeast NE from about 7-9 pm. Otherwise, it will be a pleasant night for any fireworks celebrations later in the evening around 10 pm. Overnight lows down into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Pretty quiet weather is expected for Friday with a breezy northwesterly surface flow, with the main upper trough well to the east across the western Great Lakes. This could result in spotty showers in the MO River valley Friday afternoon. High temperatures Friday still quite comfortable in the upper 70s to lower 80s, still 5-8 degrees below normal. Friday night and much of Saturday remain dry, but the next shortwave moving out of the Rockies will bring another chance for thunderstorms to central NE Saturday afternoon, then moving into our area Saturday night into early Sunday. These storms could be severe, with additional heavy rains possible Saturday evening. Before the rain arrives, temperatures remain below normal mostly in the lower 80s. Rainfall potential Saturday night could range from one half to two inches, and the area will be in both a marginal risk for severe weather and excessive heavy rainfall. There is a reinforcing short wave which helps push a weak cool front into the area Sunday, which brings one more chance of showers and storms that could linger into Sunday evening. Highs Sunday are just slightly cooler mostly in the upper 70s, but again, still well below normal. The upper trough remains in the region Monday. This could result in spotty showers Monday afternoon, with another comfortable day in the lower 80s. Tuesday looks dry with highs in the mid 80s, which is near, but still just a degree or two below normal. Spotty shower chances Wednesday, then dry Thursday, with highs in the mid 80s both days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions through the period. West northwest winds at 12 to 24 knots through about 00z, then diminishing below 12 knots thereafter. There could also be some spotty showers in the vicinity of KLNK through about 19z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Through July 4 in Omaha, we`ve had 8 days with 90 or greater for afternoon Temperatures. This is just below the average of about 10 days, but notably cooler than the previous 4 years when values have ranged from 18 to 20 days each year from 2020 through 2023. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...DeWald CLIMATE...DeWald