Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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893 FXUS63 KOAX 051733 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday afternoon and evening. - Temperatures remain below or near seasonal normals through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Today through Saturday... Skies remained mostly clear overnight, with light winds slow to clear out lingering smoke from the evening`s fireworks. Temperatures remained pleasant, dropping only into the upper 50s and lower 60s by 2AM. Quiet weather will persist across most of the region today, with temperatures remaining slightly below normal, in the upper 70s and low 80s. A weak shortwave dropping out of the Rockies, through the northwesterly flow, could spark a few sparsely scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. However, forecast soundings depict a layer of dry air near the surface that could keep much of the precip from reaching the ground. Dry weather returns for Friday night through Saturday morning, with high temperatures remaining in the upper 70s to low 80s. The next shortwave arrives late Saturday afternoon and evening. Moisture pooling in the vicinity of a warm front will bring the chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms, with the potential for another round of heavy rainfall. Very Large hail and strong damaging winds will likely be the biggest threats, given the steep lapse rates and strong shear. Therefore, we have been included in a Slight Risk for Severe Storms and a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Saturday. Sunday through Next Week... Precipitation chances continue Saturday night, through Sunday, and into Monday as energy from the upper shortwave continues to traverse the Central Plains. Temperatures remain below normal throughout the weekend with highs staying in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Drier weather returns Tuesday, as a ridge builds over the western CONUS. This will bump temperatures up a few degrees, but still at or below normal, in the mid 80s. A few on and off shower and thunderstorm chances creep back into the forecast for mid to late next week, however, there are no significant signals for severe storms at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Gusty winds out of the northwest at 20 kts are in place this afternoon, and they join a very shallow but increasing cumulus field at FL035 that will slowly increase southwesterly over the course of the afternoon before dissipating overnight. Overnight, winds will become nearly calm and switch southwesterly lasting through the morning. Just beyond the TAF period are chances for rain and storms moving in from the west during the early afternoon hours tomorrow. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Through July 4 in Omaha, we`ve had 8 days with 90 or greater for afternoon Temperatures. This is just below the average of about 10 days, but notably cooler than the previous 4 years when values have ranged from 18 to 20 days each year from 2020 through 2023. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...Petersen CLIMATE...DeWald