Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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450 FXUS63 KOAX 061112 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 612 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated river levels linger on the Missouri River from Nebraska City and and points downstream, and should continue to lower through the weekend. - Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday afternoon and evening. - Temperatures remain below or near seasonal normals through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Today and Sunday... Skies remained mostly clear overnight, with a bit of patchy fog developing over parts of southwest Iowa. By 3 AM, temperatures had dropped into the mid 50s to low 60s. Shortwave energy moving southeast through the northern plains today will bring out next chance for precipitation. By early afternoon, convection over north-central Nebraska will push east into eastern Nebraska and grow upscale. Initial elevated convection could muddle severe chances over parts of northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, with a better chance for strong to severe storms developing across central Nebraska, in a region of steeper lapse rates. Initially, large hail will be the main threat before cells merge into a line and become more capable of producing damaging winds. The latest CAM runs are in remarkably good agreement in the evolution of these storms, with The window for the greatest threat of severe storms across our forecast area between 3 PM and 10 PM this evening. Heavy rain will be possible within any of the stronger storms, however the progressive nature of the line should help limit flash flooding potential. Spotty showers and storms will be possible through Sunday and Sunday night as the shortwave continues to pivot through the central plains. Thankfully, severe storm potential looks to remain low at this time. Monday and Beyond... High pressure will settle into the western CONUS this week, resulting in a gradual rise in temperatures through the remainder of the forecast period. Highs in the 70s and 80s this weekend will increase a few degrees each day, potentially reaching the 90s by next weekend. Diurnally driven, pulsey showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoons most days. However, kept precip chances to Slight at best, given the isolated to widely scattered coverage expected. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Main forecast concern will be a line of strong to severe storms expected to move through this afternoon/evening. Trends have been toward slightly later arrival time with increasing chances of at least 30 to 40 kt gusts, though timing may still need some slight adjustment in future forecasts. In addition, some pieces of guidance hint at spotty shower and storm development by early afternoon ahead of the main line, though confidence in this occurring, much less impacting a TAF site is too low to include at this time. Outside of storms expect VFR conditions and southerly winds generally under 10 kts through most of the period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...CA