780
FXUS63 KOAX 071114
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated river levels linger on the Missouri River from
  Brownville and and points downstream, and should continue to
  lower through the weekend.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
  possible today.

- Temperatures gradually rising through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Today...

Spotty showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to be
possible throughout the day, as a shortwave disturbance pivots
through the Central Plains. A cold front moving into northeast
Nebraska will likely bring an uptick in convection this
afternoon and evening. While forecast soundings depict up to
1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability available this afternoon, weak
shear will likely limit storm longevity. Overall, expect a few
stronger storms capable of gusty winds, small hail and brief
heavy downpours, but not anticipating widespread severe storms
at this time.

Monday and Beyond...

Precipitation chances shift off to our southeast Monday morning, as
a high pressure system builds over the southwestern CONUS.
Temperatures will gradually increase from the upper 70s/low 80s
today to the low 90s by Saturday and Sunday.

Moisture lingering in the region will help spur a few pulsey showers
and thunderstorms throughout the week. The lack of any significant
forcing mechanism will likely keep these storms very isolated and
relatively weak.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Expect spotty showers and a few thunderstorms throughout today,
especially in the afternoon. While confidence isn`t particularly
high in a storm directly impacting a TAF site, latest guidance
suggests OFK would be the most likely location with mainly -SHRA
at OMA and LNK. Could see some brief MVFR or IFR conditions as
well as small hail and gusty winds with any stronger storms,
but VFR should prevail through much of the TAF period with 5000
to 10000 ft clouds. Expect various wind shifts through the day,
especially with storms, but speeds should generally remain
light and we should see mainly northwesterly by the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA