189
FXUS65 KMSO 141011
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
411 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...A very weak low pressure system still remains over
the Northern Rockies this morning causing some isolated showers
over portions of north central Idaho and west central Montana.
This disturbance is anticipated to move off to the east today.
The atmosphere becomes unstable enough to allow for the
development of scattered showers and potentially a thunderstorm
along the Continental Divide and over Lemhi county. The convection
will diminish after sunset.

A stronger disturbance will push into the region Thursday into
Friday. Widespread to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to impact the Northern Rockies, especially northwest
Montana. Temperatures on Friday appear to be 5 to 10 degrees below
seasonal averages.

A ridge of high pressure builds over the region on Saturday as a
significant low pressure system digs along the Pacific coast. This
ridge will cause a warming and drying trend for the Northern
Rockies. The models suggest that this low will remain along the
coast causing southwesterly flow to develop over the region by
Monday and potentially last through next week. This flow pattern
will be conducive to subtle disturbances to cause thunderstorm
development over the Northern Rockies along with seasonal
temperatures.



&&

.AVIATION...A very weak circulation remains over the region early
this morning causing a few showers over north central Idaho and
west central Montana. This disturbance will be moving off to the
east this morning, but KHRF KMSO and KBTM will have vicinity
showers throughout the morning. This afternoon, showers will once
again develop this time along the Continental Divide and Lemhi
county. KBTM and KSMN will have the best chance of being impacted
by the convection. Storms will diminish after sunset.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$