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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
189 FXUS65 KMSO 141011 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 411 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .DISCUSSION...A very weak low pressure system still remains over the Northern Rockies this morning causing some isolated showers over portions of north central Idaho and west central Montana. This disturbance is anticipated to move off to the east today. The atmosphere becomes unstable enough to allow for the development of scattered showers and potentially a thunderstorm along the Continental Divide and over Lemhi county. The convection will diminish after sunset. A stronger disturbance will push into the region Thursday into Friday. Widespread to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the Northern Rockies, especially northwest Montana. Temperatures on Friday appear to be 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages. A ridge of high pressure builds over the region on Saturday as a significant low pressure system digs along the Pacific coast. This ridge will cause a warming and drying trend for the Northern Rockies. The models suggest that this low will remain along the coast causing southwesterly flow to develop over the region by Monday and potentially last through next week. This flow pattern will be conducive to subtle disturbances to cause thunderstorm development over the Northern Rockies along with seasonal temperatures. && .AVIATION...A very weak circulation remains over the region early this morning causing a few showers over north central Idaho and west central Montana. This disturbance will be moving off to the east this morning, but KHRF KMSO and KBTM will have vicinity showers throughout the morning. This afternoon, showers will once again develop this time along the Continental Divide and Lemhi county. KBTM and KSMN will have the best chance of being impacted by the convection. Storms will diminish after sunset. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$