Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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163
FXUS65 KMSO 160840
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
240 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop this afternoon, on the back-end of a departing shortwave
trough along the Canadian/US border. Brief heavy downpours,
occasional lightning and breezy winds will be the main threats.

Saturday through early next week will see the re-amplification of
high pressure across the Northern Rockies. This will result in
drying and warming conditions, with high temperatures approaching
or cresting the 90 degree mark Saturday and Sunday. The apex of
the ridge will then gradually shift to the east, putting the
Northern Rockies into unstable southwesterly flow, bringing the
return of afternoon and evening showers. 85% of the long range
ensemble forecast models keeps this pattern over the region
through the end of next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...There is a 25% probability of thunderstorms this
afternoon after 16/2000Z, that will have the potential to bring
brief heavy downpours, occasional lightning, and breezy winds to
KGPI, KMSO, and KBTM. A warming and drying trend returns to the
Northern Rockies this weekend.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$