718
FXUS65 KMSO 170815
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
215 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Nighttime satellite imagery reveals developing low cloud cover
and fog across northwest Montana, where beneficial rainfall
occurred in the past 24 hours. Reduced visibility is expected to
persist through mid-morning. High pressure is building over the
Northern Rockies, leading to a warming trend today and Sunday,
with temperatures anticipated to reach about 5 degrees above
average.

Monsoon moisture currently in the Desert Southwest will be drawn
into the region by a strengthening high-pressure ridge. While
increased moisture will start arriving late today, showers and
thunderstorms are not expected until Sunday afternoon, primarily
south of Highway 12 and along the Divide. By Monday, monsoon
moisture, combined with a disturbance from a low-pressure system
to the west, is expected to result in widespread thunderstorm
activity.

Model clusters indicate a synoptic pattern dominated by a trough
in the west and a ridge in the east for much of next week.
Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal in north-central
Idaho and western Montana, with continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms. However, the precise timing and strength of
individual disturbances remain uncertain, leaving specific details
on storm occurrence unclear.



&&

.AVIATION...Fog has developed in northwest Montana, as observed
on nighttime satellite imagery, affecting locations like KGPI.
Adjusted forecast soundings suggest reduced visibility will
continue until approximately 17/1600z. Once the fog lifts, high
pressure will bring mostly sunny skies. However, exceptions
include induced ceilings caused by active fires in Idaho, such as
the Wye Fire, which is sending a plume of smoke over Hamilton,
resulting in a reported ceiling at KHRF.





&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$