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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
718 FXUS65 KMSO 170815 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 215 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .DISCUSSION... Nighttime satellite imagery reveals developing low cloud cover and fog across northwest Montana, where beneficial rainfall occurred in the past 24 hours. Reduced visibility is expected to persist through mid-morning. High pressure is building over the Northern Rockies, leading to a warming trend today and Sunday, with temperatures anticipated to reach about 5 degrees above average. Monsoon moisture currently in the Desert Southwest will be drawn into the region by a strengthening high-pressure ridge. While increased moisture will start arriving late today, showers and thunderstorms are not expected until Sunday afternoon, primarily south of Highway 12 and along the Divide. By Monday, monsoon moisture, combined with a disturbance from a low-pressure system to the west, is expected to result in widespread thunderstorm activity. Model clusters indicate a synoptic pattern dominated by a trough in the west and a ridge in the east for much of next week. Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal in north-central Idaho and western Montana, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. However, the precise timing and strength of individual disturbances remain uncertain, leaving specific details on storm occurrence unclear. && .AVIATION...Fog has developed in northwest Montana, as observed on nighttime satellite imagery, affecting locations like KGPI. Adjusted forecast soundings suggest reduced visibility will continue until approximately 17/1600z. Once the fog lifts, high pressure will bring mostly sunny skies. However, exceptions include induced ceilings caused by active fires in Idaho, such as the Wye Fire, which is sending a plume of smoke over Hamilton, resulting in a reported ceiling at KHRF. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$