330
FXUS65 KMSO 120955
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
355 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...A weak low pressure system over the Pacific
Northwest and British Columbia will keep the Northern Rockies
under southwesterly upper level flow. A few subtle disturbances
will be moving through this flow pattern for the next couple of
days causing periods of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
under this pattern appear to be hovering near to slightly above
seasonal averages.

The aforementioned low moves off to the east leaving the region
more in a zonal (westerly) flow by mid week with a weak
disturbance moving across the region Thursday into Friday. This
feature appears to cause widespread shower activity with a few
embedded thunderstorms.

Then by the weekend the ensemble models are still trending towards
a large low pressure system digging southward along the Pacific
coast which will enhance the southwesterly flow over the Northern
Rockies. This flow pattern is generally conducive to the potential
for stronger thunderstorm development across the Northern Rockies.


&&

.AVIATION...Subtle disturbances will be moving through the region
today causing scattered rain showers with the potential of
thunderstorms. The first feature is moving across northwest
Montana this morning which will keep vicinity convection near
KGPI throughout the day. The second disturbance will move into
Lemhi county and southwest Montana after 12/12z causing showers
near KSMN and KBTM. Then this afternoon the atmosphere becomes
unstable enough to produce isolated convection throughout the
region.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$