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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
330 FXUS65 KMSO 120955 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 355 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .DISCUSSION...A weak low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia will keep the Northern Rockies under southwesterly upper level flow. A few subtle disturbances will be moving through this flow pattern for the next couple of days causing periods of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures under this pattern appear to be hovering near to slightly above seasonal averages. The aforementioned low moves off to the east leaving the region more in a zonal (westerly) flow by mid week with a weak disturbance moving across the region Thursday into Friday. This feature appears to cause widespread shower activity with a few embedded thunderstorms. Then by the weekend the ensemble models are still trending towards a large low pressure system digging southward along the Pacific coast which will enhance the southwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies. This flow pattern is generally conducive to the potential for stronger thunderstorm development across the Northern Rockies. && .AVIATION...Subtle disturbances will be moving through the region today causing scattered rain showers with the potential of thunderstorms. The first feature is moving across northwest Montana this morning which will keep vicinity convection near KGPI throughout the day. The second disturbance will move into Lemhi county and southwest Montana after 12/12z causing showers near KSMN and KBTM. Then this afternoon the atmosphere becomes unstable enough to produce isolated convection throughout the region. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$