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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
589 FXUS65 KMSO 121759 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1159 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .DISCUSSION...A broad trough remains over the Northern Rockies, temperatures will remain at or a few degrees below normal through Wednesday. Of interest a few disturbances will rotate through the trough. The first this afternoon will bring the potential for strong storms, mainly over southwest MT. A relatively dry lower atmosphere combined with wind shear of 45 to 55 mph could produce surface outflow wind gusts 40 to 50 mph. The second disturbance Tuesday morning and afternoon will have elevated atmospheric moisture of 2 times the climatological norm centered over west-central MT and the Clearwater Mountains of ID. While very heavy downpours will be possible with 1-hr precipitation rates 0.25 to 0.50 inch in the strongest storms. The limitation on strong storms developing would be cloud cover in association with anomalous moisture and morning convection producing stable valleys. Flat zonal flow develops Wednesday with a general summer thunderstorm threat, mainly south and east of Missoula. Thursday into the weekend, a Pacific trough deepens along the coast. The models are almost 100% in agreement this feature develops. There is variance within the model members in the strength of the trough and eastward extent. A pattern such as this is typical of thunderstorm development, potentially strong, Questions remain on moisture availability after Saturday evening, which could decrease thunderstorm coverage. && .AVIATION...A subtle disturbance will move through the region today causing scattered rain showers with the potential of thunderstorms. This afternoon the atmosphere becomes unstable enough to produce isolated convection throughout the region. KBTM between 13/0100 and 13/0200z is the terminal with the highest probability (20% or less) of receiving a stronger storm with outflow gusts 30 to 40 mph. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...&& $$