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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
426 FXUS65 KMSO 020826 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 226 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms will focus across northwest Montana, especially in Flathead County and Glacier Park, this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop between 12:00 and 2:00 pm MDT, with probabilities reaching 40-60% across Glacier Park through 8:00 pm. These storms could produce brief heavy rain, with localized rates up to 0.50 inches per hour, as atmospheric moisture levels are 125-150% of normal. Cloud cover this morning will clear in the afternoon along and south of I-90, leading to generally clear skies with westerly breezes of 15-25 mph. The coverage of showers and storms will expand to include all of western Montana and the Clearwater Mountains on Wednesday. Another trough embedded within northwesterly flow will provide modest atmospheric instability (CAPE 100-250 J/kg) and lift for shower and storm development. Similar to Tuesday, the primary focus for shower and storm activity will be in Flathead County and Glacier Park, with 24-hour probabilities for 0.25 inches of precipitation reaching 60%. On Independence Day, Thursday, a general drying trend is expected across the area, with isolated showers and storms developing along the divide. Highs will warm into the 70s and 80s across western Montana and into the lower 90s in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho under mostly clear skies. Confidence is high for a hot and dry pattern from Friday into the weekend and beyond. Ensemble models are in strong agreement (>90% of members) with a high-amplitude ridge moving across the Pacific Northwest from Friday into Sunday, with the ridge axis shifting over the Northern Rockies by next week. Ensembles have been indicating a longer-duration heatwave across the lower elevations of Idaho in particular. This trend is well-reflected in the NBM guidance, with probabilities for temperatures of 100F or greater exceeding 50% in Orofino and Riggins each day between July 6 and 10. Several days of temperatures between 90-95F or greater will also impact valley areas of western Montana. Now is the time to prepare for potential heat impacts! /Lukinbeal && .AVIATION... Showers and thunderstorms will return to northwest Montana, particularly in Flathead County, this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop between 02/1800-2000Z and continue through 03/0300Z. These storms could produce brief heavy rain, with localized visibility reductions below 2SM under storm cores. Cloud cover this morning along and south of I-90 will clear this afternoon, with westerly wind gusts increasing to 15-25 knots across western Montana. /Lukinbeal && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$