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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
265 FXUS65 KMSO 031932 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 132 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...A Northern Rockies Heatwave Likely July 5-12... .DISCUSSION...With a lack of atmospheric convective inhibition, storms have developed quickly this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show a well-defined cyclonic circulation moving north to south through northwest Montana, which will further aid in thunderstorm development. Brief heavy rain is expected under storm cores, and there is enough lift for isolated hail. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to decrease through the evening. Temperatures will return to near normal on Thursday, with fewer storms than today. Confidence remains high that an extended period of heat will start this weekend and continue well into next week. The middle of next week looks to be the hottest period, with valleys in central Idaho hitting the 100-115 degree range and western Montana valleys reaching 90-105 degrees by next Wednesday (July 10th). Nighttime temperatures are expected to cool only into the 50s to 60s, which will make it difficult for those without air conditioning or other means of cooling down to find respite from the heat. Please check on the elderly, those susceptible to heat,and protect all animals and livestock during this stretch of hot temperatures. An aspect that is less certain during this period of hot temperatures is the thunderstorm forecast. The latest model guidance trends toward thunderstorm chances on Saturday in western Montana, especially along the Divide. && .AVIATION...Similar to the past two days, thunderstorms continue to develop across western Montana, with increased coverage compared to yesterday. These storms are closely associated with a well-defined circulation moving from north to south through the afternoon and evening. Radar projections indicate most storm activity will be concentrated from KGPI to KMSO to KBTM and eastward into the evening, with brief heavy rain under storm cores. Patchy fog is possible Thursday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT... Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region. ID...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains. Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region... Orofino/Grangeville Region. && $$