985
FXUS64 KMRX 080646
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Key Messages:

1. Isolated to scattered showers and storms areawide this
afternoon and early evening.

2. Heat Index in the 100-105 range in the southern Valley this
afternoon.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a trough remains over the Great Plains and
Midwest. A weak ridge is over the Southeast and a closed low is
off the coast of the Carolinas. At the surface, a weak pressure
pattern is in place with a stationary boundary still lingering
just south and east of the region in Northern Georgia and Western
North/South Carolina. Most of the region will have 20 to 40
percent rain chances today with higher chances closer to the
boundary near the East Tennessee Mountains and Southwest North
Carolina. Most of the CAMs have showers and storms more isolated
in the Tennessee Valley.

Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s this afternoon in the
Tennessee Valley. With dew points creeping up into the 70s again,
heat indices will be 100 to 105 in the Southern Valley. A Heat
Advisory will likely not be issued today since most areas will
stay below the 105 threshold.

Remnants of tropical system Beryl, will start to move into
Arkansas tonight but our rain chances will remain low overnight.
Patchy fog will be possible in the early morning hours but may be
contingent on rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Key Messages:

1. Heat indices of 100-105 degrees Tuesday as low-level moisture
increases over the Tennessee Valley region.

2. Afternoon convection likely for several days this week, and
remnants of Beryl will bring the best chances of rain to the region.
But likely  not enough to bust the drought.

Discussion:

Tuesday will likely be the hottest day of the week with temperatures
expected to be very similar to Monday, but dew point values should
be a few degrees higher leading to more muggy conditions and higher
Heat Index Values. A Heat Advisory may be needed for places along
and south of Interstate 40 as the Heat Index will likely cross over
the triple digit mark. But regardless or not if a Heat Advisory is
technically needed it will be HOT regardless across the entire
area...and heat safety should be practiced in the hottest and
sunniest parts of the day.

Moving into Wednesday we`ll get a very slight cool down and some of
our better chances of rainfall as the remnants of Beryl looks to
move through the Western Tennessee Valley, and will hopefully bring
enhanced moisture and more widespread showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon/evening Tuesday and Wednesday. Fairly high confidence
we will see storm development on Tuesday and Wednesday, but lower
confidence on where the storms are and how much rain people see from
them.

Slightly cooler temperatures will remain in place through at least
Thursday with most places hopefully staying below the 90 degree mark
on Thursday. Moving into Friday we`ll see ridging building in as we
move through the weekend and a gradual warming trend into next week
with once again near triple digit Heat Index values to start off
next week with.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Patchy fog is possible in the early morning hours mainly near TRI.
There is still quite a bit of high cloud on satellite and that
will continue through tonight with a break possibly this morning.
Showers and storms will likely be isolated this afternoon in the
Tennessee Valley, therefore precip was left out of the TAFs for
now since chances are fairly low on station.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             95  76  96  76 /  20  20  60  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  94  75  95  76 /  20  10  60  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  74  94  74 /  20  10  50  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              93  70  94  72 /  20  10  50  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
AVIATION...McD