Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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358 FXUS64 KMRX 020703 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 303 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Key Messages: 1. Tad warmer today area wide, and dry weather to persist. Discussion: Regional satellite shows scattered clouds in the region, HREF depicts scattered high clouds and the regular afternoon low cumulus field today. The upper level ridge will begin to build back in over our area, and winds will switch back to a up valley southwesterly flow regime. With the strong warm air aloft acting to suppress any vertical air movement, no convection is expected today either. Should be a slightly warmer, slightly muggier day than yesterday was, but overall still pretty nice. Tonight will feature still mostly clear skies, light winds under the ridge, and dry conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Key Messages: 1. Dry conditions Wednesday, with chances of showers and storms in the forecast for the remainder of the period with the highest chances expected Friday into Saturday. 2. Hot conditions expected to continue through the extended, humidity returns late week. Discussion: We start the period under the upper ridge with surface high pressure extending into our area from the northeast. Wednesday will be another dry day, with temperatures a bit above normal. The upper ridge flattens out Independence Day, and southwesterly flow brings increasing moisture. However, convective energy looks unimpressive so while some mainly diurnally driven convection is expected to develop, it should be mainly isolated to scattered in nature overall. With the increase in humidity and afternoon high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range across much of the valley, heat index values will likely climb to near or slightly above 100 in many valley locations so following good heat safety practices will be important for those spending time outdoors for the holiday. An upper trough will swing across the Great Lakes region Friday and Saturday, and a surface cold front will approach our area Friday and move through Saturday. We will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms ahead of and near the front Friday into Saturday. Friday will continue to be quite hot with heat index values in the upper 90s and lower 100s in many valley locations. The front looks likely to stall just to our south Sunday into Monday. Somewhat drier air will filter into our area, but there still may be a few isolated to scattered showers and storms around each day. High temperatures will be around to slightly above seasonal normals both days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure to continue to provide VFR and dry conditions through the TAF period. Winds will remain light at TYS and TRI. At CHA winds will gust during the afternoon tomorrow before weakening with the loss of sun in the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 74 93 76 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 91 70 91 74 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 63 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wellington AVIATION...Wellington