984
FXUS63 KMQT 040525
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
125 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (~25%) of afternoon showers/storms across interior
western Upper Michigan on Independence Day.

- Widespread moderate rain expected late Thursday night into
Friday evening. Some thunder possible.

- While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm
  chances return for Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

RAP analysis shows mainly zonal flow setting up over the area this
afternoon as a closed low continues to move through northern
Ontario, towards Hudson Bay. Over the Great Lakes, skies have been
able to turn sunny with large-scale subsidence indicated in water
vapor imagery. However, with diurnal mixing, plenty of agitated
cumulus has popped off over the UP. This remains fairly well capped
over the west, but cooler cloud tops are apparent in the eastern UP.
This hints at a chance for some isolated to scattered showers and
storms across the central and eastern UP as we head through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Given only a few hundred j/kg of CAPE
over the area, no severe weather is expected. Though any rain totals
should be light for the most part, areas where multiple storms can
move through could see QPF in excess of a quarter inch. This is most
likely in Luce county, where the highest cloud tops are already
developing (perhaps some lake breeze convergence?).

Otherwise, temperatures are turning much warmer than yesterday, with
most of the area already well into the 70s and lower 80s. The
exception is in the eastern UP, where areas along Lake Michigan
continue to struggle to get out of the 60s courtesy of onshore flow.
Meanwhile, winds remain on the breezy side, with gusts up to 20mph
common across the western half of the UP. Higher gusts in excess of
30mph continue to be observed at times across the Keweenaw. Winds
should fall back as we head into the evening and the boundary layer
decouples.

Tonight, ridging will continue to strengthen over the forecast area,
with any lingering convection over the eastern UP wrapping up by
midnight. Outside of that, though, it will be a dry night with
overnight lows generally in the 50s, low 60s to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

High pressure centered over Lake Superior will provide a pleasant
Independence Day for most of the U.P. into the afternoon hours. By
later afternoon weak shortwave moving east from main upper trough
over the Upper Mississippi Valley may help trigger a shra or tsra
near the WI border. Most will remain dry through the day. Light
onshore flow near Lake Superior will keep temperatures a little
cooler than today but inland temperatures will once again climb to
around 80. Main upper trough and surface low will move from
Wisconsin Thursday night to northern lower Michigan by Friday
evening.  Shower and isolated thunder chances will increase
significantly across the west by late evening with rain chances
becoming likely across the remainder of the U.P. during the
overnight. On and off rain and isolated thunder will continue
through much of the day on Friday. Cool northeast winds off Lake
Superior will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 near
Lake Superior with mid 60s inland. Winds will be more easterly over
the eastern U.P. so temps will climb into the lower 70s there. Most
of the U.P. with the exception of the Keweenaw will see between 0.50-
0.75 inches of rain with locally higher amounts especially along the
pivot point of the low track and where any isolated thunder occurs.
Precip amounts will be much lighter across the Keweenaw.

High pressure and clearing skies will move in Saturday morning
leading to a pleasant seasonable summer day.

The next quick moving disturbance will move in from the west Sunday
afternoon with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing through
the day and lasting into Monday.

High pressure builds back in by Tuesday afternoon and will persist
through the middle of next week with seasonable summery weather
continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals through 00Z Friday.
VFR prevails for the forecast period. A low pressure system
lifting up from Wisconsin will likely bring in some showers
along with lower MVFR to possible IFR conditions to IWD late in
the period (03-06Z Friday). Showers and MVFR conditions could
also reach into CMX and SAW as well toward the end of the period
but timing is more uncertain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Westerly winds that have been a little gusty around the Keweenaw and
Isle Royale will diminish quickly this evening. Winds will then
remain below 20 kts into Friday morning.  Low pressure moving across
WI into northern lower Michigan on Friday will allow northeasterly
winds to increase to perhaps as high as 25 knots over the eastern
Lake Friday afternoon and early evening before the low moves off to
the east later Friday night. Southerly winds ahead of the next front
moving across the Lake on Sunday may briefly approach 20 knots but
all and all a fairly quiet stretch of marine winds is expected over
the weekend into the middle of next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...MZ