656
FXUS63 KMPX 080525
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for diurnally-driven showers and storms continue for the
  next few days.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the period with
  decent chances at the year`s first 90 at MSP next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Isolated thundershowers are present over northwest WI early this
afternoon ahead of an upper-level trough axis that continues to
plague the Upper Midwest. CAMs suggest additional isolated showers
and storms will be possible later this afternoon in western WI and
also western MN. With modest instability and poor bulk shear, any
thunderstorms should be short-lived, but perhaps a few isolated
instances of pea-size hail can be produced within the stronger
cores. The activity will slowly push east but should quickly die off
after sunset. Tonight`s lows are forecast in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

The forecast can basically be copy/pasted Monday thru Wednesday as
the aforementioned upper-level trough takes its time exiting to our
east. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with chances for isolated
afternoon/early evening showers and storms, mainly over eastern MN
and western WI. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
light winds. The trough looks to finally move far enough east
Thursday to effectively end precip chances through the end of the
week.

Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge that will have moved over the
western CONUS early this week should continue east of the Rockies
after Wednesday. NBM guidance favors our temperatures to gradually
trend upwards by next weekend as the low-level thermal ridging
advects east, propping heights aloft. A major heatwave is not
expected at this time but some highs in the low 90s seem like a good
possibility next weekend. Summer may be finally realizing that it is
actually summer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The 2 main TAF considerations are fog potential this morning and
thunderstorm potential this afternoon. For the fog potential,
the line of thinking is that it will favor areas that have
already cleared out or will early on in the period, mainly
AXN/STC as high clouds linger for all other locations. -TS
mention was kept out of the current TAF due to low chance of
happening, however we will have some airmass type thunderstorms
to deal with this afternoon isolated in coverage. Winds will
remain light throughout and diminish again towards the end of
the period.

KMSP...Kept both fog and TS mention out of the current TAF as
high clouds should keep fog potential lower than western TAF
sites. TS coverage will be similar to Sunday in that a few cells
are likely, but most of the region stays dry.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, chc pm -TS. Wind NW 5kts.
WED...VFR, chc pm -TS. Wind NE 5kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...TDH