605
FXUS63 KMPX 272002
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next round of active weather arrives late this evening and
  continues into Friday. Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe
  weather across southern Minnesota Friday, where scattered
  strong to severe storms are possible.

- Quiet weekend weather on tap, followed by the next weather
  system capable of producing heavy rain and possible severe
  storms Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Rain showers have moved into the southern half of MN early this
afternoon and will continue pushing east into this evening. Despite
the large layer of dry air in the 12Z MPX ROAB, the precip has
maintained it`s strength and should result in a tenth or two of
accumulation. Additionally, redevelopment of showers and possible
thunderstorms looks likely tonight across MN as an upper-level
trough and low-level WAA impinge on the region. Currently, central
to northern MN is most favored where forcing will be greatest but
precip could expand all of the way down into northern IA. This
activity will slowly push east exiting our WI counties by early
Friday afternoon. 0.5-1" of rain is possible for the northern half
of MN while amounts will decrease southward. During Friday, clouds
will be slow to break apart following the precip but highs should
still be warm across MN with mid to upper 70s. There is also a
possibility of a 2nd round of scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon, mainly across southern MN, if enough daytime
heating occur to cause instability within the near 70 dewpoints.
There is a chance for one or two of the storms to become severe with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. A cold front
will push through Friday night into Saturday morning, largely ending
precip chances for the weekend and bringing in a milder, more
comfortable air mass. Thus, this looks like a great weekend for
outdoor activities as highs are forecast in the upper 60s to mid 70s
with abundant sun. Perhaps a few rain showers could exist across our
WI counties underneath the upper-level cyclonic flow Saturday but a
washout is not expected.

However, precip chances do return Monday through at least Tuesday as
another trough within the progressive, wavy pattern arrives into the
Northern Plains. This trough will be rather slow moving, keeping
rain chances into Tuesday night. Once this trough passes east,
theoretically another break in the precip would seem likely.
However, long-range model solutions begin to diverge in their
evolution of the upper-level pattern past next Wednesday. EPS, GEFS,
and Canadian ensemble QPF guidance does favor 1" to possibly up to
2" for portions of the MPX CWA throughout next week. Thus, it seems
like a low possibility that we experience any lengthy dry periods or
drying out of soil moisture. On the other hand, for at least the
next 2 weeks, temperatures are favored to stay closer to normal for
early July (highs generally in the the upper 70s to lower 80s).
Thus, at least we won`t have to deal with any stifling hot, muggy
weather for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR becoming MVFR and possibly IFR this evening and
tonight. A band of showers continues to move in across western MN
with low VFR cigs extending well out ahead of the line as far east
as KMSP. Cigs will gradually degrade to MVFR heights across all
sites this evening once the showers approach. -TSRA is possible with
a secondary band of precip that develops and passes through
overnight. Precip will clear from west to east after 12z
tomorrow morning. Showers may linger into the late morning for
RNH and EAU sites. SSE`ly winds increasing late tonight with
gusts ranging between 18-25kts.

KMSP...Low VFR cigs becoming MVFR over the next few hours as a band
of -SHRA progs across western MN this afternoon. This area of precip
should reach KMSP around 02z but impacts should remain above
critical thresholds. -TSRA is possible with a secondary band of
precip overnight. SE winds will increase as showers approach
overnight with gusts nearing 30kts about 12z. Showers will
linger through the morning and leaving MVFR cigs and mist in its
wake in the afternoon. Winds becoming SW`ly in the afternoon
with gusts up to 18-20kts.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind N bcmg E 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind SE 10-15G25 kts. &&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Dunleavy