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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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140 FXUS63 KMPX 061932 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 232 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon and early evening is expected to remain sub-severe. - Chances for daytime heating driven showers and storms continue for the next few days. Temperatures gradually warm throughout the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Current satellite imagery depicts a typical summer afternoon with plenty of cumulus clouds scattered across the region. As we continue to heat through the afternoon, the atmosphere will mix and isolated to scattered showers and storms will result. Some scattered showers are already present in southwestern Minnesota, but remain pulse-like due to a lack of deep layer shear. CAMs are showing a similar story, with scattered pop-up showers and storms through the early evening, particularly for western Minnesota. As a result of the pulse-like nature and lack of shear, severe storms are not expected with today`s activity. However, a few higher performing cells could produce small hail and/or up to an inch of rain. In all liklihood, most will get less than a quarter of an inch. After sundown, storms will transition to more shower-y in nature as a shortwave disturbance moves overhead. This could result in an additional few tenths of liquid, but nothing too impactful. Sunday will be similar to today, with isolated pop-up showers and storms possible in the afternoon. The biggest difference between today and tomorrow is location, with tomorrow`s rain chances favoring western Wisconsin. Temperatures will remain fairly steady through the early week, with highs around 80. Winds will also be steady from the west/northwest and light in magnitude. Diurnally driven showers remain possible Tuesday and Wednesday in western Wisconsin. Overall, a rather benign weather pattern will couple up with the light winds and seasonable temperatures giving way to a pleasant week weather-wise. The thermometer will trend upwards by late week as winds go southerly and the atmosphere heats up. Upper 80s and potentially low 90s are possible by the weekend. This aligns well with our climatologically warmest period of the year, with the high end of the normal temperature range reaching 84 degrees (for MSP) July 8th through 23rd. While climatological normal high temperatures will begin to go down on July 24th, the Climate Prediction Center forecast is favoring above normal temperatures July 12th through August 2nd. Ensembles support this trend for the end of the month, with the GEFS, ECMWF, and CMC all having consecutive days in the 90s beginning mid-July. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Pop-up thunderstorms have begun to develop across western to central MN early this afternoon. This activity should be short- lived but could pass by RWF, AXN, and STC. The more likely timing for more widespread thunderstorms will be late this afternoon in western MN as a mid-level disturbance arrives from the west. These scattered storms will travel west to east across MN this evening, likely weakening to just rain around 06Z, and reaching WI early Sunday morning. Have included TEMPOs at MN terminals for possibility of MVFR during thunderstorms. Outside of the storms, VFR is likely with cigs dropping to low end VFR at RNH and EAU towards the end of the period. However, patchy fog does look possible at AXN near sunrise Sunday. South- southwesterly winds will slow overnight (with a more southerly component) before returning again Sunday morning. KMSP...Kept PROB30 for isolated -TSRA from 22-02Z today. Rain showers look possible from midnight to sunrise as a disturbance passes through but conditions should remain VFR. Chance of afternoon -TSRA again Sunday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind W 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind NW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PV AVIATION...CTG