000
FXUS63 KMPX 080843
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
343 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for diurnally-driven showers and storms continue for
  the next few days.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the period with highs
  in the 90s appearing likely this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A few showers and thunderstorms are continuing across
southeastern MN and southwestern WI, but the rest of the region
is fairly quiet this morning. Patchy fog has developed, but it
isn`t as widespread or as dense as Sunday morning. Water vapor
imagery shows numerous weak disturbances littering the northern
and central Plains, Upper Midwest, and into southern Canada,
within a broad long wave trough. These disturbances will be the
foci for mostly diurnally-driven scattered convection through
midweek. None of these rounds look particularly widespread or
heavy, although locally heavy rain with slow moving convection
is a possibility. CAMs and global guidance highlight areas
north of I-94 with the most widespread activity this afternoon.
Activity should wane gradually following sunset this evening.

Cyclonic flow continues Tuesday and Wednesday. Each afternoon
will feature about 500 J/kg CAPE and 20 kts of shear or less,
leading to disorganized convection likely forming near weak
disturbances or outflow boundaries. Isolated to scattered
coverage of storms can be expected.

Beyond Wednesday, ridging will finally build east from the West
Coast. A broad area of ridging will span the CONUS, with two
centers located over the central Rockies and the Gulf into the
Caribbean. An active pattern will continue across Canada, so
it`s likely there will be intrusions of cooler air from the
north through mid July as weaknesses develop in the broad
ridging. One such moderation appears to arrive early next week.
That would also lead to thunderstorm chances, although extended
model guidance are fairly dry with QPF. Highs should peak
Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Dew points may also
increase well into the 70s, which would limit cooling at night
and lead to increased HeatRisk. Heat headlines may be necessary
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The 2 main TAF considerations are fog potential this morning and
thunderstorm potential this afternoon. For the fog potential,
the line of thinking is that it will favor areas that have
already cleared out or will early on in the period, mainly
AXN/STC as high clouds linger for all other locations. -TS
mention was kept out of the current TAF due to low chance of
happening, however we will have some airmass type thunderstorms
to deal with this afternoon isolated in coverage. Winds will
remain light throughout and diminish again towards the end of
the period.

KMSP...Kept both fog and TS mention out of the current TAF as
high clouds should keep fog potential lower than western TAF
sites. TS coverage will be similar to Sunday in that a few cells
are likely, but most of the region stays dry.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, chc pm -TS. Wind NW 5kts.
WED...VFR, chc pm -TS. Wind NE 5kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...TDH