267
FXUS63 KMPX 070834
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
334 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for diurnally-driven showers and storms continue for
  the next few days.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the period with
  decent chances at the year`s first 90 at MSP next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated early this
morning, with the exception across southeastern MN and parts of
western WI. This latest round is a result of an MCV near Lake
Mille Lacs which continues northeast toward DLH. Water vapor
imagery shows numerous such disturbances littering the northern
and central Plains, Upper Midwest, and into southern Canada,
within a broad long wave trough. These disturbances will be the
foci for mostly diurnally-driven scattered convection through
midweek, with nothing looking particularly widespread or heavy.

CAMs and global guidance highlight areas in western MN and
western WI as the locations with the most widespread activity
this afternoon. It is in these areas greater instability will
develop, with a minimum across eastern and south central MN. A
couple stronger storms are possible across southeast MN and
western WI where 25 kts of bulk shear could help organization.
Otherwise, activity should wane gradually following sunset this
evening.

Cyclonic flow continues Monday, Tuesday, and possibly into
Wednesday due to the remnants of TC Beryl tracking northeast
into the Great Lakes. Each afternoon will feature about 500 J/kg
CAPE and 20 kts of shear or less, leading to disorganized
convection likely forming near weak disturbances or outflow
boundaries. Isolated to scattered coverage of storms can be
expected.

Beyond Wednesday, ridging will finally build east from the West
Coast. A broad area of ridging will span the CONUS, with no real
discernible center. An active pattern will continue across
Canada, so it`s possible there may be occasional intrusions of
cooler air from the north if weaknesses in the ridge develop.
That would also lead to thunderstorm chances, although extended
model guidance are trending drier on QPF. Highs well into the
80s, and possibly low 90s, will become common next weekend and
early the following week. Dew points may also increase into the
70s which would limit cooling at night and lead to increased
HeatRisk. After a cool, wet summer so far, the pattern finally
appears to be changing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

-RA is likely to begin the period from MKT to STC spreading
 eastwards over the first few hours. Visibility should remain
 above 4SM generally, with thunder limited to the southern end
 of the line which should stay clear of all sites with the
 exception of EAU if the storms stay together over the next few
 hours, which is not expected. A brief period of MVFR is
 possible as the showers move through, but generally low VFR
 vis/CIGS are expected. CIGS lift by the afternoon with another
 chance at isolated -SHRA after roughly 20z, however lower
 confidence than the last few days with only diurnal heating for
 forcing.

KMSP...Left out any mention of -SHRA or -TSRA for the afternoon
as confidence is too low to include even a prob30 for now. The
better environment looks west of the Twin Cities, favoring
RWF/AXN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind W 5kts.
TUE...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NW 5kts.
WED...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...TDH