Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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313 FXUS63 KMPX 071056 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 556 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for diurnally-driven showers and storms continue for the next few days. - Temperatures will gradually warm through the period with decent chances at the year`s first 90 at MSP next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated early this morning, with the exception across southeastern MN and parts of western WI. This latest round is a result of an MCV near Lake Mille Lacs which continues northeast toward DLH. Water vapor imagery shows numerous such disturbances littering the northern and central Plains, Upper Midwest, and into southern Canada, within a broad long wave trough. These disturbances will be the foci for mostly diurnally-driven scattered convection through midweek, with nothing looking particularly widespread or heavy. CAMs and global guidance highlight areas in western MN and western WI as the locations with the most widespread activity this afternoon. It is in these areas greater instability will develop, with a minimum across eastern and south central MN. A couple stronger storms are possible across southeast MN and western WI where 25 kts of bulk shear could help organization. Otherwise, activity should wane gradually following sunset this evening. Cyclonic flow continues Monday, Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday due to the remnants of TC Beryl tracking northeast into the Great Lakes. Each afternoon will feature about 500 J/kg CAPE and 20 kts of shear or less, leading to disorganized convection likely forming near weak disturbances or outflow boundaries. Isolated to scattered coverage of storms can be expected. Beyond Wednesday, ridging will finally build east from the West Coast. A broad area of ridging will span the CONUS, with no real discernible center. An active pattern will continue across Canada, so it`s possible there may be occasional intrusions of cooler air from the north if weaknesses in the ridge develop. That would also lead to thunderstorm chances, although extended model guidance are trending drier on QPF. Highs well into the 80s, and possibly low 90s, will become common next weekend and early the following week. Dew points may also increase into the 70s which would limit cooling at night and lead to increased HeatRisk. After a cool, wet summer so far, the pattern finally appears to be changing. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 553 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Morning fog should burn off quickly after sunrise for AXN/RWF/STC, with winds remaining fairly weak but efficient mixing once again expected. Elected to forego a -TS mention with this round once again as coverage is going to be spotty with airmass type showers and weak storms this afternoon. The primary time period will span roughly 20-00z, after which point anything left should break up and weaken. KMSP...Did not mention -TS in the TAF itself with confidence in seeing VCTS roughly 15-20 percent at this time. The window is also fairly narrow, roughly 20-00z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind W 5kts. TUE...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NW 5kts. WED...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind NE 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...TDH