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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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939 FXUS63 KMPX 032023 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 323 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall likely for tomorrow and tomorrow night. - Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into next week with temperatures remaining below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 If you`re a fan of fair weather days... enjoy this one while it lasts! Temperatures will drop into the mid-low 70s around sunset, and cloud cover will begin to increase from the southwest overnight. The upper trough over the northern Rockies is still on track to deepen and develop a closed low as it moves east into the Upper Mississippi Valley early tomorrow. A band of showers and few storms will likely develop along the warm front across western MN shortly after midnight, eventually expanding north and east throughout the morning. Outside of some isolated precip, most locations will likely see a few hours of dry conditions before more scattered to widespread showers and storms develop during the afternoon. CAMS continue to favor less of a widespread heavy rain event, and more of a localized concern depending on what areas see the strongest and most numerous storms. In other words, a broad swath of 1+ inches of rain is still expected across southern and central MN, but CAMS suggest that only a county or so will see values in excess of 2-3 inches. The area of focus looks to be somewhere within south- central MN (just west of the TC metro) where the deformation zone is expected to set up (northwest of the surface low). HREF probabilities have a line of 40-60% chance for greater than 2 inches of rain (in 24 hours) extending from Redwood Falls up towards Rogers, MN. As we head into the evening, precip should become more isolated across southern MN while showers and storms closer to the low should be favored with the continued synoptic lift. A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and evening, however a few factors could limit things. 1) Lapse rates will be modestly steep at best (about 6-7 C/km); 2) Extensive cloud cover could limit instability, with only 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE expected (greatest over southeast MN); 3) elongated/straight hodos suggest splitting cells could interact/interfere with one another; and 4) vertical wind shear will also be somewhat modest (25-35 kts), potentially limiting storm organization. That said, all hazards will be on the table for any storm that is able to develop and become organized. Given the relatively cooler temperatures aloft and the hodo signatures, hail development would be favored, with a few instances of large hail possible. This hail threat was noted as the main reasoning for our upgrade to a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) on the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Non-supercell tornadoes/funnels will also be possible, especially near the surface low as it tracks through southeastern MN. Bursts of heavy rain and strong winds will be likely with any organized storms as well. Several more chances for rain will be possible through the middle of next week as the upper level heights remain in a western ridge, central trough pattern. QPF amounts continue to look meager from event to event, but could total up to an additional 1-2 inches for some through this period. Temperatures will stay near or below normal into next week, before potentially climbing as we head into mid-July. Both the GEFS and EPS suggest a few days in the 90s will be possible, but this will largely be dependent on how/if the ridge over the western CONUS builds eastward. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions expected through tonight, but broken to overcast skies and lowering cigs will move in from west to east during Thursday morning. RWF looks to have a good chance to falling to MVFR cigs towards the end of the period. Rain chances will also increase from west to east during Wednesday morning as our next system arrives with a band of thunderstorms possible across western and southern MN. Due to this potential, have kept or added PROB30s for -TSRA at most of our MN terminals with visibilities dropping to MVFR within the heavier cores. Outside of any storms, general conditions will be either scattered light showers or overcast skies. Steady westerly winds will slow to calm/variable overnight before becoming more south- southeasterly near 5 knots Thursday morning. KMSP...Have added a PROB30 from 15-18Z Thursday for the possibility of some rain showers. Scattered showers and thunderstorms become more likely heading thru Thursday afternoon with the best timing for storms and MVFR after 22Z. Westerly winds of 10-15 knots will gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Light southwesterly winds tonight will become easterly at 5-10 knots by 18Z Thursday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU PM...MVFR/IFR SHRA & TSRA. Wind E 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind N 10G20 kts. SAT...Chance PM MVFR SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...CTG