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Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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441 AWUS01 KWNH 041704 FFGMPD WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-042258- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0555...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 104 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Corrected for MPD Number Areas affected...Northern Plains...Upper Midwest Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 041658Z - 042258Z Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Slow storm motions (10-15 kts) combined with 1.5-2" rainfall rates in the most prolific cells may lead to some flash flooding this afternoon. Discussion...Surface and VWP data helped place a vertically stacked low center between KABR and KMVX on the cyclonic side of a curved mid-level jet streak entering the region. As this low becomes increasingly defined, recent cellular activity late this morning has exhibited an uptick in lightning density and estimated rainfall rates of 1-1.5"/hr at times, generally along a KABR to KFSD line. This uptick in activity can likely be attributed to persistent differential advection across the region (CAA aloft with strengthening low level southerly flow) in the presence of very divergent and diffluent upper-level pattern. Current mesoanalysis and GPS estimates suggest 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 1.2-1.4" PWATS (around the 90th percentile) available to foster efficient rainfall production, generally in a "tall-skinny" profile. Several embedded mesoscale circulations are also noted within the larger precipitation shield, which will locally enhance rainfall rates. Through this afternoon, the main concern is for these efficient showers and thunderstorms to move slowly (10-15 kts) and regenerate near the closed low center as it meanders eastward. The 12z HREF suite remains quite aggressive with rainfall totals (2-4") through at least 22z as the ongoing activity expands and develops more. This is likely to result in scattered instances of flash flooding, as much of the region is highly saturated in light of earlier rainfall events this month. NASA SPoRT 0-100 cm soil moisture percentiles depict soils nearly at capacity across the region, while numerous gauges at the the West Fork Des Moines and Mississippi River show Minor to Moderate observed flood stages. As such, flash flooding is considered likely going into this afternoon. Asherman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...BIS...DMX...FGF...FSD...MPX... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 46609634 45459240 43769145 42839276 43259530 44009642 44979846 46169858