759
AWUS01 KWNH 050756
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-051155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0562
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 AM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern MO and South-Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050755Z - 051155Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with some localized
cell-training concerns may result in some areas of flash flooding
going through dawn this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a band of heavy showers and
thunderstorms impacting portions of eastern MO just to the
southwest of the St. Louis metropolitan area. This activity is
associated with a broader complex of convection that is impacting
the middle MS Valley as a wave of low pressure advances northeast
along a quasi-stationary front.

There continues to be a fair amount of instability pooled along
the front with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg nosed up across
southeast MO and far southern IL. A relatively strong corridor of
moisture convergence is noted along the front and just ahead of
the wave of low pressure, and this coupled with the instability
and proximity of right-entrance region upper-jet forcing should
still favor some convective sustenance over the next few hours
going through dawn.

This should allow for some bands of convection near and just
southwest of St. Louis to continue to advance off to the northeast
and gradually get into areas of south-central IL. Rainfall rates
with the stronger storms may reach as high as 1.5 to 2
inches/hour, and some additional totals going through dawn may
reach 2 to 4 inches given some cell-training occurs.

Some of these rains will be falling over areas that already have
moist/sensitive soil conditions and elevated streamflows from
heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours, and thus these additional
rains may cause some areas of flash flooding over the next few
hours. This will include some urban flash flooding concerns as
well around the St. Louis vicinity and especially the adjacent
southern and eastern suburbs.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39358922 39228845 38798839 38388901 38059022
            38189111 38689095