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Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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764 AWUS01 KWNH 052017 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-060000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0566 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 416 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Areas affected...Western Virginia and North Carolina Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 052016Z - 060000Z SUMMARY...Flash flooding is likely as pre-frontal and slow-moving storms produce rates to 3 inches per hour. Isolated instances of significant flash flooding are possible. DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal convection that has developed across the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina has been producing rainfall rates to 3 inches per hour over the areas they have been forming. The storms that have formed over the mountain communities of NC have a history of causing street flooding in poor drainage areas. PWATs are up around 2 inches in the area, indicating an air mass with plentiful moisture. The atmosphere is uncapped, with CAPE values up to 2,000 J/kg in place. Given the local sensitivities to flash flooding, these parameters, while far from off-the-charts, have been enough to produce flooding producing rainfall. With little in the path of these storms that would suggest meaningful weakening of the storms as they progress eastward into the Piedmont, expect continued widely scattered instances of flash flooding with isolated significant flash flooding possible. CAMs guidance has been very poor with the convective evolution so far. Much of the guidance, if there is convection at all, shows it as a line that quickly crosses the area with only isolated convection out ahead of the main line. However, the evolution of the convection so far has been much more widespread, indicating much better ability for the storms to develop and produce heavy rainfall. Thus, much of the guidance has been discounted, in favor of a continuity approach into the evening suggesting continued convective development out ahead of the line. The front has been a clear demarcation of the ending of any significant rainfall, and expect that to continue to be the case as well. Wegman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38997922 38457851 37517858 36487883 35447970 34848093 34998251 35738239 36878155 38198078 38578009