744
FXUS64 KMOB 030502
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Mostly VFR conditions continue through the period. Local reductions
to ceilings and visibilities will be possible around any
thunderstorms on Wednesday. Another round of low ceilings may
also develop again towards the end of the period over interior
portions of the area. Light southeasterly winds prevail. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

An upper level ridge will remain in place over the Southeastern US
through Wednesday while deep layer moisture remains abundant
thanks to southerly flow at the surface. A few showers and storms
have developed along the coast this afternoon where the seabreeze
is interacting with a lingering surface boundary. This activity
should dissipate through the evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Temperatures have been very hot today, and we`ve actually
seen heat index values in a few localized areas briefly
approaching near Heat Warning criteria. A Heat Advisory therefore
remains in effect for all counties except for Butler and Crenshaw
in Alabama (where dew points are keeping heat index values below
108 degrees) until 7pm. Warm and muggy conditions will carry into
tonight with low temperatures ranging from the middle 70s inland
to the lower 80s at the beaches.

Rain chances will begin to increase early Wednesday morning across
our coastal and southern zones as a subtle impulse slides along
the southern periphery of the lingering upper ridge. This impulse
aloft combined with the weak boundary at the surface and
increasing moisture will aid in the development of scattered to
locally numerous showers and storms in the southern areas before
spreading inland through the afternoon. Some storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. The
increased rain chances and cloud cover will result in high
temperatures being a couple of degrees cooler than today, with
values expected to peak in the lower to middle 90s. However, it
will still be very humid outside of any storms and heat index
values are forecast to reach into the 105-110 degree range on
Wednesday. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for this
potential across the entire area from 10am until 7pm on Wednesday.

The rip current risk remains low in the near term. However, it will
begin to ramp up later this week. /14

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

An expansive upper-level ridge centered directly over the Deep
South at the start of the period will linger in place through at
least Friday. By Saturday, an upper trough swinging into the Great
Lakes region will allow for the ridge to flatten and push to the
east, likely becoming situated over the western Atlantic just off
the coast of Georgia and South Carolina by Monday and Tuesday.
This will allow for upper flow to gain a more southwesterly
component by Friday with a few embedded shortwave impulses moving
within this flow.

Looking at the surface, high pressure ridges into the area from
the east through most of the period, with the summertime
land/seabreeze circulation likely being the dominant surface
feature at play over the local area. This combined with daytime
heating will maintain a diurnal shower and thunderstorm pattern,
with scattered showers and storms expected across the area each
day, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. The NBM wants
to put likely pops (60-70 percent) over the area each day, but as
the previous shift noted, not overly confident in that happening
with the upper ridge sitting directly overhead. Plenty of
moisture, instability, and forcing along the sea breeze should
help to spark isolated showers and storms during the morning
(mainly along coastal counties and over the marine zones),
followed by scattered coverage in the afternoon (mainly over
inland areas) each day. So, we have generally capped afternoon
PoPs at 30-50 percent during the first half of the long term
period due to the aforementioned uncertainty. By the weekend and
into early next week, have ticked afternoon rain chances up
slightly (up to 40-60 percent) as the ridge moves off to our east
and weakens slightly, and with the weak impulses passing overhead
within southwesterly flow aloft. As is the case with summertime
pulse- type convection, although severe storms are generally not
expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will
be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to
develop.

Outside of daily storm chances, it will be remain hot thanks to
the close proximity of the ridge. Highs will generally be in the
low 90s along the coast and the mid 90s inland (some interior
areas could even reach the upper 90s). With dew points likely to
remain in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices are forecast to rise
into the 105 to 112 degree range each day prior to the onset of
thunderstorms. Therefore, we will likely have multiple days of
Heat Advisories across much of the area. Lows will not provide
much relief, further exacerbating the overall heat risk to the
local area as temperatures each night look to drop only into the
mid to upper 70s, with low 80s along the coast. DS/12

BEACH Hazards...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place for the 4th of July
holiday, however, the rip current risk looks to increase by Friday
and especially into the post-holiday weekend. This will be due to
a long period (on the order of 15 seconds) swell shooting up
through the Yucatan Channel and north across the Gulf as Hurricane
Beryl move into the western Caribbean. In addition to the rip
current risk, the swell will likely lead to increasing surf
conditions, beach erosion problems, and wave run- up issues at the
beaches (especially problematic at vulnerable spots like the west
end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by Friday into Saturday. We
still have plenty of time to watch the trends over the coming
days, but next weekend has the potential to be very dangerous at
the local beaches. Based on next weekend having lots of additional
visitors around the holiday, we want to continue to stress this
potential. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

No impacts are expected over the marine areas other than locally
higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  92  76  94  76  94  76  94 /  10  50  10  50  20  60  30  60
Pensacola   77  90  77  92  78  93  78  93 /  20  50  10  50  20  60  30  70
Destin      80  90  80  91  80  91  80  91 /  20  50  20  50  20  50  30  60
Evergreen   74  94  74  95  74  93  73  94 /  10  50  10  50  30  60  30  50
Waynesboro  74  94  75  95  74  94  73  94 /  10  50  10  50  30  60  30  50
Camden      73  93  75  95  74  92  73  94 /  10  50  10  50  30  60  30  50
Crestview   74  94  74  95  75  96  74  95 /  10  50  10  50  20  60  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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