188
FXUS64 KMOB 032102
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

An upper level ridge will remain in place over the Southeastern US
through Thursday. This will help to maintain the very hot conditions
in the  near term. Plenty of moisture layer will also continue to
usher into the area thanks to southerly flow at the surface with
PWATs ranging from 2-2.4 inches through the period. We`ve seen
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms develop this afternoon
across the area as a weak surface trough lingers. Storm motions have
been rather slow given weak flow aloft which has resulted in a few
localized spots picking up a quick 1-2+ inches of rain this
afternoon. This activity should dissipate through the evening with
the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures are not at bad as they were
yesterday (currently upper 80s and lower 90s), but that doesn`t mean
it`s not hot and humid out there. Dew points are generally in the
mid and upper 70s, but there are currently a few areas where
observations are reporting dew points around 80 degrees. The hot
temperatures and high humidity has caused heat index values to rise
into the 105-110 degree range, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect
until 7pm this evening for all areas given these conditions. Warm
and muggy conditions will carry into tonight with low temperatures
ranging from the middle 70s inland to around 80 degrees at the
beaches.

The hot and stormy conditions will persist into the Independence Day
Holiday as the overall synoptic pattern remains the same. Rain
chances will likely begin to increase along the coast Thursday
morning before spreading inland through the afternoon. Coverage
overall should remain scattered to locally numerous at times. A few
storms storms could also produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty
winds, and frequent lightning. Similar to today, it will be hot and
humid outside of any convection with heat index values expected to
reach into the 105-110 degree range. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect across the entire area from 10am until 7pm Thursday.

The rip current risk remains low in the near term. However, it will
begin to ramp up later this week as long period swell reaches the
northern Gulf. /14

&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The upper-level ridge which has been over the Deep South through
much of the week is expected to flatten and push to the east
beginning Saturday and into the weekend as an upper trough swings
into the Great Lakes region. With the ridge becoming situated
more over northeast Florida/southeast Georgia over the weekend,
upper- level flow will become southerly to southwesterly across
our local region. At the surface, a frontal boundary is still
expected to move into portions of northern Alabama/Mississippi on
Saturday, however, it should stall to the north of our CWA and
then linger in place through early next week. Over our area,
surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic continues
to ridge back west into our area through the period. With this,
we will continue to be looking at a mostly typical summer pattern,
with the land/seabreeze circulation being the dominant surface
features at play each day.

Looking at rain chances, we will continue a typical diurnal pattern
to convection through the period, with scattered showers and storms
expected during the early morning hours (mainly along coastal
counties and over the marine zones), followed by scattered to
locally numerous showers and storms developing during the afternoon
and early evening hours (mainly over inland areas).  Some days will
have more coverage than others, but at this time it appears that
Friday and Saturday will be the wettest days of the period. The
reason for this uptick is due to the approach of the aforementioned
frontal boundary which will stall to our north, daytime heating and
sea breeze interactions all working together for a somewhat
active diurnal convective pattern.

With the diurnal convective pattern mentioned above the overall
temperature/heat index forecast is somewhat complicated. Areas that
see a later start to convective initiation will likely see their
highs reach the low to mid 90s. Dew points will also remain in the
mid to upper 70s, which will lead to heat indices in the 105 to 112
degree range, ultimately resulting in the need for continued Heat
Advisory issuances. However, if we see storms fire earlier than
anticipated and become more widespread in coverage, then it may be
difficult for some areas to actually reach these values. Nighttime
lows will be in the low to mid 70s over inland areas through the
period, but mid to upper 70s nearer to the coast. A few locations
very near the coast could see low temps remain in the lower 80s.
All in all, this uncertainty is leading to a lower confidence
temperature forecast, which will become further refined over the
coming days. DS/12

&&

BEACH HAZARDS...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place through the 4th of
July holiday, however, the rip current risk looks to increase by
Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend. This is due
to the approach of a long period swell (on the order of 15-17
seconds) produced by Hurricane Beryl shoots north through the
Yucatan Channel as the hurricane moves into the western Caribbean
Sea and eventually into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This
swell packet will likely reach the northern Gulf coast Friday
morning. We currently have a MODERATE Risk of rip currents along
our beaches for Friday then increasing to a HIGH Risk Friday night
and continuing through the weekend. It is quite likely that we
will upgrade the risk for Friday to a HIGH Risk as well. In
addition to the rip current risk, this swell packet will likely
lead to increasing surf conditions Friday through Sunday, with
beach erosion problems and wave run-up issues at the beaches
(especially problematic at vulnerable spots like the west end of
Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by Friday into Saturday. Some
salt water flooding of these areas is possible, and although tide
levels are not expected to be significantly above normal along our
coast, we will likely issue Coastal Flood Advisory sometime on
Thursday to highlight this potential for the normally vulnerable
areas. We still have some time to watch the trends, and make
adjustments as need, but do want to note that late this week and
over the weekend could potentially be very dangerous at the local
beaches. Based on this weekend having lots of additional visitors
to the area around the holiday, we want to continue to stress
this danger potential. DS/12

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

No impacts are expected over the marine areas other than locally
higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  91  76  92  76  92  75  93 /  20  60  10  60  30  60  20  50
Pensacola   79  91  78  91  78  92  77  92 /  20  50  10  50  30  70  30  50
Destin      80  91  80  91  80  91  80  91 /  20  50  10  50  30  60  30  50
Evergreen   74  94  75  94  74  92  73  94 /  20  50  10  70  30  60  20  50
Waynesboro  75  93  75  93  73  90  72  94 /  20  60  10  70  40  70  20  50
Camden      74  93  75  92  73  90  72  93 /  20  50  10  70  40  60  20  50
Crestview   74  95  75  95  75  95  74  95 /  10  50  10  50  20  60  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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