995
FXUS64 KMOB 102340
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
640 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

A surface boundary will remain stalled over the forecast area,
south of I-65, with a dry airmass over the forecast area becoming
even drier tonight into Sunday. Precipitable h20 values drop to
1.5" or less over most of the forecast area into Sunday(a bit
higher along the coast). For today, enough moisture is in place
closer to the coast this afternoon, combined with a seabreeze
moving inland, for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop
mainly over the Florida panhandle. Am not expecting any showers or
thunderstorms for Sunday, with best chance being over the open
Gulf.

An upper ridge building east over the Southeast will help keep
daytime temperatures at or above seasonal norms for today and
Sunday. Temperatures topping out in the low 90s north of Highway
84 and along the coast mid to upper 90s between are expected today
and Sunday. Have left today`s Heat Advisory in place for the
Florida Panhandle, but am not planning on issuing another for
Sunday, with heat indices topping out in the 100-106 degree range.
Tonight, with the drier air moving south across the area,
temperatures closer to seasonal norms are expected. Temperatures
bottoming out in the upper 60s expected north of Highway 84,
around 70 to low 70s south to I-10 with upper 70s to near 80 south
of I-10 to the coast. /16

SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Hot and dry conditions continue to prevail across the forecast
area with only isolated to locally scattered shower and
thunderstorm potential each afternoon. Best chances will remain
primarily nearer the coast in the vicinity of the sea-breeze
boundary and perhaps better chances into late week as upper
troughing begins to build and amplify into the eastern CONUS. In
the mean time, broad upper troughing prevails across the eastern
US, with weak upper ridging remaining over the Gulf coast states.
This ridging gradually strengthens into mid week next week
allowing temperatures to once again heat up. High temperatures
will be hot (around 4 to 8 degrees above normal), reaching the
upper 90`s to near 100 each day. Low temperatures Sunday and
Monday nights will be around 70 degrees inland and middle/upper
70`s near the coast. Low temperatures thereafter will be around 4
to 8 degrees above normal, and should only lower to middle to
upper 70`s for all of the forecast area by Tuesday night through
Friday night. Locations along the coast may never make it out of
the lower 80`s for lows some nights. As temperatures heat up into
early next week heat advisories will likely once again be needed,
particularly Tuesday through the remainder of the week. Depending
on if we can keep higher dewpoints during the afternoon hours we
may meet excessive heat warning criteria of 113+ heat indices
Thursday/Friday/Saturday, particularly across coastal counties.
Heat index values on any given day will likely be in the 105 to
110 range, with locally higher up to 110 to 115 nearer the coast
the latter part of the week. A Low risk of rip currents remains
through the extended period. MM/25 /22

MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will bring a general
westerly flow through the forecast. A daytime seabreeze/night-
time land breeze will bring a northwest/southwest shifting in
direction. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected, mainly along and south of the coast. No impacts expected
other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  97  75  97  76  98  77  98 /   0  10   0  20  10  20  10  30
Pensacola   78  96  78  95  78  97  80  97 /  10  10  10  20  10  20  10  30
Destin      79  94  79  94  81  95  81  95 /  10  20  10  20  10  20  10  30
Evergreen   71  95  70  97  73  99  75  98 /   0  10   0  10   0  10   0  20
Waynesboro  68  95  70  98  72 100  75  99 /   0  10   0   0   0  10   0  20
Camden      68  92  69  95  72  97  74  95 /   0  10   0   0   0  10   0  20
Crestview   73  97  73  97  75  98  76  99 /  10  10   0  20  10  30   0  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202>206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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