520
FXUS64 KMOB 092101
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
401 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Weak westerly to northwesterly flow will continue in the upper
levels through Saturday as we remain on the eastern periphery of a
broad upper level ridge and an upper trough meanders over the Great
Lakes region. The main surface feature in the near term will be a
surface trough that is currently draped across portions of the
Florida Panhandle and far south central Alabama. Drier air has
filtered in behind this feature with surface dew points currently in
the lower 70s over parts of southeast Mississippi and southwest
Alabama. Better deep layer moisture is in place along and south of
the surface boundary (mainly over south central Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle) where dew points are in the middle and upper 70s.
While the radar has remained mostly dry through early this
afternoon, we are still expecting isolated to scattered showers and
storms to develop in areas along and southeast of I-65 later this
afternoon and into early this evening. Any activity that develops
should then taper off overnight. Temperatures this afternoon have
climbed into the lower and middle 90s across the area. The drier air
behind the front has kept heat index values below advisory
thresholds over most interior areas. Further south, a Heat Advisory
remains in effect through 7pm today for our coastal counties as well
as far eastern portions of south central Alabama where surface
observations have been reporting heat index values between 105-110
degrees.

The pattern will remain unchanged as we head into the weekend. The
surface boundary will continue to linger over south central Alabama
with another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms
developing along and southeast of the boundary Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will still be hot with highs reaching into the lower
and middle 90s. We may need another Heat Advisory for the immediate
coastal areas tomorrow, but have opted to hold off for now as
conditions look to be very borderline. A low risk of rip currents is
expected through the weekend. /14

&&

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 449 AM CDT Fri Aug 9
2024

The front/trough that had been just offshore will lift back
northward into the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night before
remaining nearly stationary while gradually dissipating through
most of next week. Mostly dry conditions will generally prevail
through the extended term however, with only isolated to locally
scattered shower and thunderstorm potential each afternoon, especially
over the southern half of the forecast area, in the vicinity of
the sea-breeze boundary. Broad upper troughing prevails across
the eastern CONUS, with weak upper ridging remaining over the Gulf
coast states. This upper ridging gradually strengthens into the
middle to late part of next week, and likewise we will see
temperatures once again heating up. Overall, temperatures remain
hot in the middle to upper 90`s Sunday, becoming predominately
upper 90`s to near 100 by Monday through Friday. Overnight lows
remain warm as well, going from upper 60`s inland and mid/upper
70s coastal this weekend to mid 70`s inland and lower 80s coastal
by next week. As temperatures heat up into early next week Heat
Ddvisories will likely once again be needed, particularly Tuesday
through Friday time frame. Heat index values on these days will
likely be in the 105 to 110 range, with locally higher up to 112
or even a little higher near the coast. A Low risk of rip currents
remains through the extended period. DS/12

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

No significant marine impacts expected aside from increased winds
and seas near isolated to scattered storms that develop each day.
A light to moderate diurnal flow pattern will continue through
the weekend and into the early part of next week. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  97  75  97  75  98  77  98 /  10  10  10  10  10  20  10  30
Pensacola   78  96  78  96  78  96  79  97 /  20  30  20  30  10  30  10  30
Destin      80  94  80  94  80  94  81  94 /  20  40  20  30  20  30  20  30
Evergreen   74  96  72  97  71  98  74  99 /  10  10   0  10   0  10   0  20
Waynesboro  72  95  70  96  70  98  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Camden      72  92  70  93  70  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Crestview   75  97  75  97  73  98  75  98 /  30  40  10  30  10  30  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ058>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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