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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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002 FXUS64 KMOB 291857 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 157 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours. Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon will decrease in coverage shortly after sunset this evening. Most of the activity this afternoon and evening will be inland, a little to the north of the TAF sites. Late tonight some coastal showers and storms will again possibly develop impacting TAF sites before moving farther inland during the day. Some brief and localized MVFR/IFR conditions could prevail near the showers and storms. Otherwise, light southwesterly winds this afternoon and tonight (becoming mare variable inland tonight) then more light northwesterly area-wide on Sunday. DS/12 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Our active summertime pattern continues through the weekend. Looking aloft, a very weak upper- level inverted trough is expected to linger over the Gulf Coast through the remainder of the day today before dissipating by the evening hours. By tonight and into Sunday, an upper ridge over the south central US expands eastward, placing the local region under the eastern periphery of this ridge. This gives way to a light northeasterly to easterly flow pattern aloft, and a few weak shortwave impulses look to pass overhead as they move within this flow. At the surface, the dominant feature that will be in place through the period will be the typical summertime land/sea breeze circulation. With PWATs exceeding 2 inches across the entire area and a highly unstable environment in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop both days. As has been the case for the past few days, convection will start by developing over coastal counties and marine zones during the morning hours. By the afternoon, this activity will spread inland as the sea breeze pushes northward and interacts with outflow boundaries. Activity will gradually wane during the evening hours thanks to the loss of daytime heating. As is the case with typical summertime convection, although severe storms are generally not expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to develop. Highs for today will top out in the low 90s. We should stay just below Heat Advisory criteria today, with heat indices climbing into the 102 to 107 degree range. Lows tonight will remain very mild, with temperatures only dropping into the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to around 80 degrees closer to the coast. Highs tomorrow look to top out a couple degrees warmer than today... generally in the mid 90s. This slight bump in temperatures should help to increase our heat indices into the 105 to 110 degree range, and therefore a Heat Advisory will likely become necessary for much of the local area. A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place through this afternoon. By tonight and especially into Sunday, long period swell, likely originating from Invest 94L as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche, will reach our local beaches. This will likely cause a quick uptick in rip currents, and therefore a High Risk of rip currents is now in effect from late tonight into Sunday evening. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 94 76 95 75 91 76 92 / 30 60 30 60 20 50 20 50 Pensacola 78 93 78 93 78 90 79 91 / 20 50 50 60 30 50 30 70 Destin 80 91 79 92 80 90 80 90 / 20 50 60 60 40 60 30 60 Evergreen 73 94 74 95 73 93 73 94 / 40 70 30 60 20 50 10 50 Waynesboro 73 94 73 95 71 96 73 94 / 30 70 20 50 10 50 10 50 Camden 73 94 73 93 72 93 73 94 / 30 70 30 50 10 50 10 40 Crestview 75 94 75 96 74 93 74 94 / 30 70 40 60 20 50 20 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob