342
FXUS64 KMOB 041030
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
530 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A persistence forecast continues through the end of the week with
both dangerous heat and high rain chances continuing to headline the
forecast. Dangerous rip currents will become likely along area
beaches Friday through the weekend. We will also be monitoring for
potential for wave runup, beach erosion, and perhaps some flooding
along vulnerable lower lying coastal locations as long period swell
associated with distant Hurricane Beryl arrives late Friday morning
into Friday afternoon.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch
across the Deep South through Friday afternoon. Hot and very humid
conditions will persist across our forecast area underneath this
feature through the end of the week. Afternoon high temperatures
should generally range between 90-95 degrees today and Friday, but
dewpoints holding in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees will continue to
result in maximum heat index readings between 105-110 degrees over
much of our region both days. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
between 10 am and 7 pm today and another could become necessary
again on Friday. Those spending time outdoors during the hottest
part of the day should take precautions from the heat by drinking
plenty of fluids, wearing light colored, loose fitting clothing, and
taking frequent breaks. A very moist airmass will remain entrenched
across our forecast area underneath the ridge axis through Friday
afternoon, with precipitable water values continuing to average
between 2-2.4 inches. Scattered to locally numerous showers and a
few thunderstorms initially developing near the coast during the
early morning hours should gradually develop further inland through
the day today. Rain chances will remain high between 50-70 percent.
Convective coverage should dwindle during the evening before the
pattern resets tonight into Friday. The coverage of showers and
storms may trend higher by Friday afternoon as a weak surface trough
axis/boundary slips southward into interior portions of southeast
MS/southwest AL. POPs by Friday afternoon will range between 60-80
percent across our region. Some storms will have the potential to
produce very heavy rainfall given the very moist environment and
relatively slow storm motions and a few locations could easily
receive in excess of 2-3"+ of rain in a fairly short period of time.
We will need to monitor storm trends for potential localized
flooding. The increased convective coverage could impact the
longevity of high heat index readings on Friday, so confidence was
low enough to preclude extending the Heat Advisory into Friday with
this package. /21



.BEACH HAZARDS...

The rip current risk will remain LOW along area beaches today and
tonight. We still expect that the rip current risk will ramp up
considerably during the day Friday and into the holiday weekend as
long period swell (on the order of 15-17 seconds) associated with
distant Hurricane Beryl shoots north through the Yucatan Channel as
the hurricane moves into the western Caribbean Sea and eventually
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This swell packet still looks
to reach the northern Gulf coast by late Friday morning. The
combination of the high period swell and large tidal ranges with
tide outgoing during the afternoon/evening will favor the
development of dangerous rip currents Friday through the weekend.
We now have a HIGH rip current risk in place along the Alabama
and western Florida panhandle beaches Friday through Sunday night.


The swell packet will also likely lead to increasing surf conditions
Friday through Sunday, with beach erosion problems and wave run-up
issues at the beaches (especially problematic at vulnerable spots
like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by Friday into
Saturday. Some salt water flooding of these areas is possible, and
although tide levels are not expected to be significantly above
normal along our coast, we will likely issue Coastal Flood Advisory
later today to highlight this potential for the normally vulnerable
areas. We still have some time to watch the trends, and make
adjustments as need, but do want to note that late this week and
over the weekend could potentially be very dangerous at the local
beaches. Based on this weekend having lots of additional visitors to
the area around the holiday, we want to continue to stress the
potential for dangerous rip currents and wave conditions. 21/12



&&

.SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Weak upper ridging remains in place across the forecast area this
weekend and strengthens somewhat as we head into the early to
middle part of next week. Without any appreciable upper level
features evident on forecast guidance, expect your typical Summer
time weather with showers and storms offshore and/or along the
immediate coast in the morning gradually spreading inland by late
morning through early evening each day. Any given day won`t be a
washout, but expect scattered to locally numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day, particularly mid to late afternoon.
Temperatures will remain very warm with overnight lows in the
lower to middle 70`s inland with upper 70`s to lower 80`s near the
coast. Highs will generally stay in the lower to middle 90`s each
day. Heat index values will likely be near or above advisory
criteria for a good chunk of the period and heat advisories may
be needed on any given day, particularly if convective coverage
trends lower. Additionally, please refer to the beach hazards
section above for details on the potential for dangerous rip
currents and coastal flooding concerns as we head into the
weekend. MM/25



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A light southerly to southwesterly flow pattern will prevail through
the remainder of the week. A long period swell associated with
Hurricane Beryl will arrive into the marine area Friday and persist
into Saturday before gradually subsiding late this weekend. Locally
higher winds/waves will remain possible near showers and storms
that develop through the weekend. /21



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  76  92  78  93  76  93  77 /  60  20  70  40  70  20  60  30
Pensacola   91  79  91  78  93  77  92  79 /  50  20  60  30  70  30  60  40
Destin      90  81  90  80  92  80  91  80 /  50  10  60  30  70  30  60  40
Evergreen   93  74  93  74  93  73  94  73 /  60  20  80  40  70  20  50  20
Waynesboro  92  75  91  73  92  71  94  74 /  60  20  80  40  60  10  40  20
Camden      93  75  93  73  93  71  94  73 /  50  20  80  40  70  20  40  20
Crestview   94  75  95  75  94  74  94  74 /  60  10  70  30  70  20  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob