430
FXUS64 KMOB 021152
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
652 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

IFR ceilings have developed across portions of the western FL
panhandle including near KPNS early this morning. These may
persist for another 1-2 hours before gradually lifting. VFR is
otherwise expected to prevail across the region today except near
scattered SHRA/TSRA that will develop across the region by this
afternoon. A few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds
and localized MVFR or lower conditions. Winds become SE/S around
10 knots today. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 527 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 527 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered over
the Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent Gulf Coast states early
this morning, while a weak surface boundary/trough axis is oriented
near the immediate coast. Skies are mostly clear across the majority
of our forecast area early this morning with the exception of some
low clouds that are developing in the vicinity of the western FL
panhandle.

The upper level ridge will continue to expand eastward across much
of the southern and southeastern U.S. today and will remain the
dominant weather feature across our CWA. Dangerous heat will impact
our forecast area again today as high temperatures reach into the
mid 90s to around 100 degrees across much of the region, except for
lower 90s along the immediate coast. Afternoon dewpoints hold strong
in the mid to upper 70s across much our region this afternoon, and
even around 70 or the lower 70s across portions of southeast MS
where highs top out closer to 100 degrees. Maximum heat index values
will range between 106-112 degrees over most of our forecast area,
with very localized higher values. We have opted to expand the Heat
Advisory to encompass all but our far northeastern zones today (heat
index values are currently forecast to stay just below criteria in
Butler/Crenshaw AL counties this afternoon). The combination of
plentiful deep layer moisture underneath the ridge axis, daytime
heating/ample instability, and the weak surface trough axis lifting
inland, and a coastal seabreeze today will support the development
of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region
late this morning and into this afternoon. Surface based CAPE values
in excess of 3000 J/KG and downdraft CAPE values in excess of 1000
J/KG could aid in a few storm cells capable of producing strong to
localized damaging gusts. Storms could also be efficient rainfall
producers with precipitable water values around 2 inches. Isolated
to scattered convection should linger into the early evening hours
before diminishing. A weak impulse pivoting westward along the
southern periphery of the upper ridge and the presence of the weak
boundary across the region may allow scattered to locally numerous
showers and storms to re-develop late tonight into Wednesday
morning, with the greatest coverage closer to the coast. Showers and
storms may tend to develop further inland going into Wednesday
afternoon. Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. Lows
tonight should range in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees, while highs
on Wednesday generally range between 90-95 degrees. Maximum heat
indices between 105-110 degrees could necessitate the issuance of
another Heat Advisory but the caveat will be increased cloud
coverage and good storm chances Wednesday.

The rip current risk is currently LOW today through Wednesday. See
below for additional details on an anticipated ramp up in the rip
current risk Friday through the weekend. /21

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at XXXXXX

An expansive upper-level ridge centered directly over the Deep
South at the start of the period will linger in place through at
least Friday. By Saturday, an upper trough swinging into the Great
Lakes region will allow for the ridge to flatten and push to the
east, likely becoming situated over the western Atlantic just off
the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. This will allow for upper
flow to gain a more southwesterly component through the remainder
of the period, with a few embedded shortwave impulses moving
within this flow. Looking at the surface, the summertime
land/seabreeze circulation will likely develop each day and will
be the dominant surface feature at play over the local area. A
frontal boundary does look to move south by late week but is
expected to stall over portions of northern Alabama/Mississippi,
well to the north of our CWA. Looking at rain chances, not overly
confident in overall coverage on Thursday and Friday with the
upper ridge sitting directly overhead. Plenty of moisture,
instability, and forcing along the sea breeze should help to spark
isolated showers and storms during the morning (mainly along
coastal counties and over the marine zones), followed by scattered
coverage in the afternoon (mainly over inland areas). Capped
afternoon PoPs at 30-50 percent for these days due to the
aforementioned uncertainty. By the weekend and into early next
week, have ticked afternoon rain chances up slightly (up to 40-60
percent) as the ridge moves off to our east, weak impulses pass
overhead within southwesterly flow aloft, and the front stalls to
our north. Would not be surprised if rain chances increase further
for these days as confidence increases in subsequent forecast
updates. As is the case with summertime pulse-type convection,
although severe storms are generally not expected, gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with some
of the stronger storms that manage to develop.

Outside of daily storm chances, it will be remain hot thanks to the
close proximity of the ridge. Highs will generally be in the low 90s
along the coast and the mid 90s inland (some interior areas could
even reach the upper 90s on Thursday and Friday). With dew points
likely to remain in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices are forecast
to rise into the 105 to 112 degree range each day prior to the onset
of thunderstorms. Therefore, we will likely have multiple days of
heat advisories across much of the area. Lows will not provide much
relief, further exacerbating the overall heat risk to the local
area... temperatures each night look to drop only into the mid to
upper 70s, with low 80s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents
will be in place for the 4th of July holiday, however, the rip
current risk looks to increase by Friday and especially into the
post-holiday weekend. This will likely be a result of long period
swell reaching our local beaches in association with Beryl as it
emerges over the Bay of Campeche by the weekend. We will continue to
monitor this potential, as well as possible increases in surf and
wave run-up issues over the coming days. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly to southerly flow
will develop over the marine area today. A mainly light southerly to
southwesterly flow pattern is then expected through the remainder of
the week. A few storms will be capable of producing waterspouts,
gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall the next few days. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      96  77  92  76  94  77  95  77 /  30  30  60  10  40  10  40  20
Pensacola   93  79  90  78  92  79  93  79 /  30  50  60  10  30  10  50  10
Destin      91  80  90  80  91  80  92  81 /  40  40  50  10  30  10  30  10
Evergreen   95  76  93  74  96  75  97  76 /  40  30  60  10  50  10  50  20
Waynesboro  99  76  93  75  96  76  97  75 /  20  20  60  10  40  10  50  30
Camden      97  76  94  75  97  76  97  75 /  30  20  60  10  40  10  50  30
Crestview   94  76  93  74  95  75  96  76 /  50  40  60  10  50  10  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>056-059-060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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