139
FXUS64 KMOB 071128
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions generally prevail throughout the rest of today into
tonight. A few afternoon showers and storms are possible,
particularly over interior portions of the area which could
temporarily reduce ceiling and/or visibility to IFR/LIFR flight
categories in addition to gusty winds. Otherwise, expect mostly
dry conditions with winds prevailing out of the southwest around
5kts. MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Our Summer time pattern continues with the expectation of
scattered to perhaps locally numerous showers and storms once
again this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Primary hazards with
storms remains potential for locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning. PWATs remain high around 2 inches today which should
promote heavy downpours and potential for localized nuisance
flooding in urban or poor drainage areas. Temperatures will be hot
once again, with highs in the middle 90`s for most locations both
days. Afternoon mixing should allow for the interior portions of
the forecast area to have lower afternoon dewpoints which should
help keep heat index values below advisory criteria between 100
and 106 degrees. Nearer the coast of AL and the Florida panhandle
dewpoints should stay relatively high despite mixing owing to the
current onshore flow which should allow for heat index values to
rise to the 105 to 110 range. Given this, I have went ahead with a
heat advisory for the coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle. Monday should have slightly lower afternoon dewpoints
and most of the area will likely remain below advisory criteria.

A high risk of rip currents remains in place through tonight owing
to the continued long period swell and onshore flow at our AL/FL
beaches. Swell period gradually wanes into tonight and should allow
for rip currents to diminish somewhat tonight into Monday.
Given this, we will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents for the
day Monday. Increasing onshore flow will likely necessitate another
high risk of rip currents as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday.
MM/25

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Our forecast area will remain situated along the western periphery
of weak upper level ridging that will extend across the eastern
and southeastern states Monday night into Tuesday. An upper level
trough will meanwhile be deepening across the central U.S. during
this time and the remnants of Beryl will lift northward and become
absorbed into the trough across the ArkLaTex, Ozarks, and Mid-
Mississippi Valley regions. Some of this remnant moisture may be
drawn into portions of our area on Tuesday between the trough to
our west/northwest and the ridge across the eastern states.
Precipitable water values may become enhanced between 2.25 and 2.5
inches across a good part of our region during the day Tuesday.
Showers and storms may become more numerous in coverage across
the area, perhaps especially starting near the coast in the
morning and developing across most of the forecast area by Tuesday
afternoon. We will have afternoon POPs ranging from 70-80% across
the region on Tuesday with rainfall amounts generally forecast to
average between one quarter and one half inch. Locally higher
totals in excess of 1-2" will certainly be possible given the deep
moisture in place over the area. The upper level trough/low and
associated remnants of Beryl continue to lift toward the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. A relatively light flow pattern will be in
place over our forecast area Wednesday through Saturday underneath
weak ridging aloft. Deep layer moisture will be sufficient to aid
in the development of at least scattered showers and storms each
day through the latter part of the week and into Saturday, with
convective chances trending slightly lower between 30-50%
coverage each afternoon. Afternoon highs ranging from around 90
to the lower 90s on Tuesday slow climb higher into the lower to
mid 90s through the latter part of the week and into the upcoming
weekend. Heat index readings are currently forecast to stay just
below Heat Advisory criteria for the most part through the end of
the week, but we could see values getting closer to the 105-110
degrees range by Friday and Saturday, especially near the coast.
/21

MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A light southwest to westerly flow pattern will prevail today before
becoming southeasterly on Monday. Light to moderate southwesterly to
westerly flow then prevails by mid to late week. Tropical Storm
Beryl continues over the warm waters of the southwest Gulf and is
expected to regain hurricane strength before coming ashore the
central Texas coast Monday morning. Long period swell, associated
with Beryl, will be common through Monday. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  78  93  78  91  77  92  76 /  50  20  60  30  70  30  50  30
Pensacola   92  81  92  80  91  80  91  78 /  40  20  60  40  70  40  50  30
Destin      90  82  90  81  90  81  90  80 /  40  20  60  40  70  30  60  30
Evergreen   93  74  93  74  92  74  93  73 /  60  40  60  10  70  20  40  10
Waynesboro  95  74  96  74  92  74  93  72 /  60  30  60  10  70  20  30  10
Camden      95  74  96  74  92  74  92  72 /  60  40  60  20  70  20  30  10
Crestview   94  77  94  75  92  75  93  74 /  60  30  60  20  70  20  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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