Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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430 FXUS64 KMOB 021152 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 652 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 652 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 IFR ceilings have developed across portions of the western FL panhandle including near KPNS early this morning. These may persist for another 1-2 hours before gradually lifting. VFR is otherwise expected to prevail across the region today except near scattered SHRA/TSRA that will develop across the region by this afternoon. A few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and localized MVFR or lower conditions. Winds become SE/S around 10 knots today. /21 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 527 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 527 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A strong upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent Gulf Coast states early this morning, while a weak surface boundary/trough axis is oriented near the immediate coast. Skies are mostly clear across the majority of our forecast area early this morning with the exception of some low clouds that are developing in the vicinity of the western FL panhandle. The upper level ridge will continue to expand eastward across much of the southern and southeastern U.S. today and will remain the dominant weather feature across our CWA. Dangerous heat will impact our forecast area again today as high temperatures reach into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees across much of the region, except for lower 90s along the immediate coast. Afternoon dewpoints hold strong in the mid to upper 70s across much our region this afternoon, and even around 70 or the lower 70s across portions of southeast MS where highs top out closer to 100 degrees. Maximum heat index values will range between 106-112 degrees over most of our forecast area, with very localized higher values. We have opted to expand the Heat Advisory to encompass all but our far northeastern zones today (heat index values are currently forecast to stay just below criteria in Butler/Crenshaw AL counties this afternoon). The combination of plentiful deep layer moisture underneath the ridge axis, daytime heating/ample instability, and the weak surface trough axis lifting inland, and a coastal seabreeze today will support the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region late this morning and into this afternoon. Surface based CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG and downdraft CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/KG could aid in a few storm cells capable of producing strong to localized damaging gusts. Storms could also be efficient rainfall producers with precipitable water values around 2 inches. Isolated to scattered convection should linger into the early evening hours before diminishing. A weak impulse pivoting westward along the southern periphery of the upper ridge and the presence of the weak boundary across the region may allow scattered to locally numerous showers and storms to re-develop late tonight into Wednesday morning, with the greatest coverage closer to the coast. Showers and storms may tend to develop further inland going into Wednesday afternoon. Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. Lows tonight should range in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees, while highs on Wednesday generally range between 90-95 degrees. Maximum heat indices between 105-110 degrees could necessitate the issuance of another Heat Advisory but the caveat will be increased cloud coverage and good storm chances Wednesday. The rip current risk is currently LOW today through Wednesday. See below for additional details on an anticipated ramp up in the rip current risk Friday through the weekend. /21 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at XXXXXX An expansive upper-level ridge centered directly over the Deep South at the start of the period will linger in place through at least Friday. By Saturday, an upper trough swinging into the Great Lakes region will allow for the ridge to flatten and push to the east, likely becoming situated over the western Atlantic just off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. This will allow for upper flow to gain a more southwesterly component through the remainder of the period, with a few embedded shortwave impulses moving within this flow. Looking at the surface, the summertime land/seabreeze circulation will likely develop each day and will be the dominant surface feature at play over the local area. A frontal boundary does look to move south by late week but is expected to stall over portions of northern Alabama/Mississippi, well to the north of our CWA. Looking at rain chances, not overly confident in overall coverage on Thursday and Friday with the upper ridge sitting directly overhead. Plenty of moisture, instability, and forcing along the sea breeze should help to spark isolated showers and storms during the morning (mainly along coastal counties and over the marine zones), followed by scattered coverage in the afternoon (mainly over inland areas). Capped afternoon PoPs at 30-50 percent for these days due to the aforementioned uncertainty. By the weekend and into early next week, have ticked afternoon rain chances up slightly (up to 40-60 percent) as the ridge moves off to our east, weak impulses pass overhead within southwesterly flow aloft, and the front stalls to our north. Would not be surprised if rain chances increase further for these days as confidence increases in subsequent forecast updates. As is the case with summertime pulse-type convection, although severe storms are generally not expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to develop. Outside of daily storm chances, it will be remain hot thanks to the close proximity of the ridge. Highs will generally be in the low 90s along the coast and the mid 90s inland (some interior areas could even reach the upper 90s on Thursday and Friday). With dew points likely to remain in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices are forecast to rise into the 105 to 112 degree range each day prior to the onset of thunderstorms. Therefore, we will likely have multiple days of heat advisories across much of the area. Lows will not provide much relief, further exacerbating the overall heat risk to the local area... temperatures each night look to drop only into the mid to upper 70s, with low 80s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place for the 4th of July holiday, however, the rip current risk looks to increase by Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend. This will likely be a result of long period swell reaching our local beaches in association with Beryl as it emerges over the Bay of Campeche by the weekend. We will continue to monitor this potential, as well as possible increases in surf and wave run-up issues over the coming days. /96 MARINE... Issued at 527 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly to southerly flow will develop over the marine area today. A mainly light southerly to southwesterly flow pattern is then expected through the remainder of the week. A few storms will be capable of producing waterspouts, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall the next few days. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 96 77 92 76 94 77 95 77 / 30 30 60 10 40 10 40 20 Pensacola 93 79 90 78 92 79 93 79 / 30 50 60 10 30 10 50 10 Destin 91 80 90 80 91 80 92 81 / 40 40 50 10 30 10 30 10 Evergreen 95 76 93 74 96 75 97 76 / 40 30 60 10 50 10 50 20 Waynesboro 99 76 93 75 96 76 97 75 / 20 20 60 10 40 10 50 30 Camden 97 76 94 75 97 76 97 75 / 30 20 60 10 40 10 50 30 Crestview 94 76 93 74 95 75 96 76 / 50 40 60 10 50 10 50 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>056-059-060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob