Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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344 FXUS64 KMOB 031038 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 538 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to stretch from the Lower Mississippi Valley and through the north central Gulf Coast region and southeastern U.S. early this morning. A weak surface trough axis extends from far southern portions of Louisiana and along the coastal interface of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle early this morning where precipitable water values are up to around 2.3 inches per GOES TPW imagery. Scattered to numerous rain showers and a couple of isolated thunderstorms have developed from the northern Gulf into southern portions of our forecast area overnight in association with the deeper moisture and weak isentropic ascent in the vicinity of the boundary. The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the Deep South through the Independence Day holiday. Hot and very humid conditions will continue to bring heat related concerns to our forecast area through Thursday afternoon. Actual high temperature readings may end up being a few degrees lower than yesterday, but we still expect highs to range between 90- 95 degrees across most of our area. Surface dewpoints will remain quite high in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees today, which should result in maximum heat index values ranging between 105-110 degrees over much of the region. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of our CWA from 10 am to 7 pm. Deep moisture will remain embedded across our area underneath the ridge axis today, with precipitable water values continuing to average between 2.0 and 2.3 inches. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be most prolific near the coast through the early morning hours before gradually spreading inland later this morning and into this afternoon. Rain chances should remain quite high today and will maintain POPs between 60-70% over most of our region. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and a few spots could pick up a quick 1-2"+ of rain in a short period of time. We may need to monitor for very localized minor flooding. A few storms may linger into the early to mid evening hours before gradually diminishing in coverage. Another batch of isolated to scattered showers/storms could re-develop near the coast again late tonight into early Thursday morning. A similar scenario is expected for the Independence Day holiday. Upper ridging will continue to stretch across our region and expect another hot and humid day across our region underneath this feature. Highs once again reach into the lower to mid 90s inland and around 90 along the coast. Maximum heat index readings once again look to top out around 110 degrees, so we have issued another Heat Advisory for the forecast area again from 10 am to 7 pm Thursday. Another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms should once again develop and spread inland through the day. The rip current risk looks to remain low across area beaches through Thursday afternoon. Long period swell associated with Beryl will bring a ramp up in the rip current risk Friday through the weekend. More details are provided below. /21 && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The upper-level ridge which has been over the Deep South through much of the week is expected to flatten and push to the east through the weekend as an upper trough swings into the Great Lakes region. As the ridge becomes situated over northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, upper-level flow will become southerly to southwesterly across our local region, and a few embedded shortwave impulses look to move within this newly established flow through the period. At the surface, a frontal boundary is still expected to move into portions of northern Alabama/Mississippi on Saturday, however, it should stall to the north of our CWA and linger in place through early next week. Over our area, high pressure over the western Atlantic remains in control, allowing for the typical land/seabreeze circulation to develop each day and become the dominant surface feature at play. Looking at rain chances, confidence is beginning to increase that we will see higher convective coverage across the area each day during the extended term period. Convection will likely follow a typical diurnal pattern, with scattered showers and storms expected during the morning (mainly along coastal counties and over the marine zones), followed by numerous storms developing during the afternoon (mainly over inland areas). At this time, Friday and Saturday are starting to look to be our wettest days of the period. The reason for this uptick is due to the approach of the aforementioned frontal boundary which will stall to our north, as well as an initial shortwave moving overhead. Ongoing storms along the front will help to send outflow into the local area. Once this outflow begins interacting with the seabreeze boundary underneath the shortwave aloft, this should help to ignite numerous thunderstorms across the area. Decided to cap rain chances at 50-70 percent on Friday and 70 percent areawide on Saturday. There are still some questions regarding the overall strength/influence of the ridge (especially on Friday), which is why I am hesitant to include the NBM`s suggested categorical PoPs at this time. We will continue to tweak rain chances over subsequent forecast updates. Rain chances remain rather elevated (around 50-60 percent) through the remainder of the period. As is the case with summertime pulse-type convection, although severe storms are generally not expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to develop. With the upward trend in rain chances, the overall temperature/heat index forecast is becoming a bit more complicated. Areas that see a later start to convective initiation will likely see their highs reach the low to mid 90s. Dew points will also remain in the mid to upper 70s, which will lead to heat indices in the 105 to 112 degree range, ultimately resulting in the need for continued Heat Advisory issuances. However, if we see storms fire earlier than anticipated and become more widespread in coverage, then it may be difficult for some areas to actually reach these values. All in all, this uncertainty is leading to a lower confidence temperature forecast, which will become further refined over the coming days. /96 && .BEACH Hazards... Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2024 A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place through the 4th of July holiday, however, the rip current risk looks to increase by Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend. This is due to the approach of a long period swell (on the order of 15-17 seconds) caused by Hurricane Beryl as it moves into the western Caribbean and eventually into the southwestern Gulf. In addition to the rip current risk, this swell will likely lead to increasing surf conditions, beach erosion problems, and wave run- up issues at the beaches (especially problematic at vulnerable spots like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by Friday into Saturday. We still have plenty of time to watch the trends over the coming days, but next weekend has the potential to be very dangerous at the local beaches. Based on next weekend having lots of additional visitors around the holiday, we want to continue to stress this potential. DS/12 /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A light southerly to southwesterly flow pattern will prevail through the remainder of the week. A long period swell associated with Hurricane Beryl will arrive into the marine area late Friday into Saturday. A few storms will be capable of producing waterspouts and locally higher winds/waves each day. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 92 76 93 77 93 77 92 76 / 70 20 60 10 50 30 70 40 Pensacola 91 78 92 79 91 79 92 78 / 70 20 50 10 50 20 60 40 Destin 90 80 90 80 90 81 91 80 / 60 20 50 20 40 20 60 40 Evergreen 93 74 96 76 94 75 94 74 / 70 20 60 10 70 30 70 30 Waynesboro 94 75 94 75 93 75 92 73 / 70 20 60 10 70 40 70 20 Camden 93 75 95 75 93 75 93 73 / 60 20 50 10 70 40 70 20 Crestview 94 74 95 75 94 75 95 74 / 60 20 60 10 50 20 70 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob