Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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844 FXUS64 KMOB 041856 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 156 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. Scattered to numerous shower and a few thunderstorms will continue through this afternoon and into the early evening hours, but gradually diminish overnight. Redevelopment near the coast late tonight and early Friday morning, the more numerous over inland areas again on Friday afternoon. Localized reductions in ceilings and visibility (mainly MVFR to IFR) near convection through the period. A generally light south to southwest wind is expected through the period, but occasionally more variable with stronger gusts near showers and storms. DS/12 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A persistence forecast continues through Friday. Continued hot and muggy conditions with scattered to numerous diurnal showers and storms through Friday. Dangerous rip currents will become likely along area beaches Friday and continue through the weekend. We will also be monitoring for potential for wave runup, beach erosion, and perhaps some flooding along vulnerable lower lying coastal locations as long period swell associated with distant Hurricane Beryl arrives along the northern Gulf coast beaches Friday morning into Friday afternoon. These beach hazards will persist into the weekend. We already have highlighted a HIGH Risk of rip currents along the AL and northwest FL beaches beginning Friday, and we will be issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory later today for the potential of some salt water flooding due to wave run-up issues at some of our especially problematic at vulnerable spots along our Gulf front beaches. While coastal flooding in the general sense, due to above normal tides, is not expected there could be some run-up issues that cause some problems at a few of our more vulnerable areas, ie- the west end of Dauphin Island and around the Fort Pickens area. Otherwise, an upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch across the Deep South through Friday afternoon. Hot and very humid conditions will persist across our forecast area underneath this feature through the end of the week. Afternoon high temperatures on Friday should again generally range between 90-95 degrees, with dewpoints holding in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. This will continue to result in maximum heat index readings between 105-110 degrees over much of our region again on Friday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today until 7 pm and we plan on issuing another heat Advisory for our entire forecast area on Friday with this afternoon`s forecast package. A very moist airmass will remain entrenched across our forecast area underneath the ridge axis through Friday afternoon, with precipitable water values continuing to average between 2-2.4 inches. Scattered to locally numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are again expected. Lingering convection this evening will end, but more showers and storms will likely regenerate near the coast and over the Gulf late tonight, and then become more numerous over inland areas again on Friday afternoon (generally again in the 50 to 60 percent range). There is some question as to coverage of precip on Friday as a weak surface trough axis/boundary slips southward into interior portions of southeast MS/southwest AL, and PoPs may turn out to need to be a little higher, so we will monitor model trends on this. No severe weather is anticipated, although the regular, isolated strong storm can`t be ruled out. As has been the case over the past few days, the storms will continue to be relatively slow movers as well, so localized heavy rainfall and the potential for some minor localized flooding will be present. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 92 78 93 76 93 77 92 / 20 70 40 70 20 60 30 70 Pensacola 79 91 78 93 77 92 79 92 / 20 60 30 70 30 60 40 70 Destin 81 90 80 92 80 91 80 91 / 10 60 30 70 30 60 40 70 Evergreen 74 93 74 93 73 94 73 92 / 20 80 40 70 20 50 20 70 Waynesboro 75 91 73 92 71 94 74 94 / 20 80 40 60 10 40 20 70 Camden 75 93 73 93 71 94 73 94 / 20 80 40 70 20 40 20 70 Crestview 75 95 75 94 74 94 74 94 / 10 70 30 70 20 60 30 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob