384
FXUS62 KMLB 041142
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
742 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions are forecast outside of storms with sea breeze
driven scattered showers/storms forecast to develop into the
afternoon/evening. Isold SHRA possible at SUA-FPR thru 14Z in
cloud lines impinging on the coast. VCSH/VCTS begins at 16-19Z
with TEMPO TSRA for inland sites from 20-23Z. Shower/storm chances
diminish after sunset. Light and variable winds during the
overnight/morning will increase from the E at 5-10kts into the
afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Key Messages:

- A Heat Advisory is in effect today for heat index values
  reaching up to 110 degrees. Residents and visitors should take
  extra care to stay cool and hydrated.

- A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for Volusia and northern
  Brevard County beaches. Entering the water is discouraged.
  Elsewhere, a moderate risk for rip currents exists.

- Rain and lightning storm chances increase from north to south
  today along the inland-moving east coast sea breeze.

Today-Tonight...Warm and humid conditions are present this
morning, along with mostly clear skies. A broad H5 high,
stretching from the western Gulf Coast to Florida, will remain in
place today. Slightly lower atmospheric moisture is moving
onshore across the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee region, as
shown by GOES-derived PW imagery. Sub-2 inch PW may briefly work
along the rest of the coast, before increasing moisture rotates
south again this afternoon.

Dangerous heat is expected later today. If you are planning to
spend time outdoors to celebrate the holiday, be sure to stay
hydrated and take breaks out of the direct sun in air
conditioning. Due to the anticipated uptick in moisture this
afternoon, temperatures in the 90s will combine to produce heat
index values of 105-110 degrees. This level of heat can lead to
heat-related illness, especially for those without adequate
cooling and hydration. Check up on neighbors and relatives, and
remember to never leave children or pets behind in a hot car!

If your plans include time at the beach, especially from Cape
Canaveral northward, be aware that a High Risk of rip currents
exists. Numerous rip current rescues have been reported in the
last few days along these beaches, and unfortunately, one rip-
related fatality was recorded near Daytona Beach yesterday.
Entering the surf is highly discouraged! South of the Cape,
including southern Brevard County and Treasure Coast beaches, a
moderate risk of rip currents will be present. Here, swim near a
lifeguard and never enter the water alone.

With respect to rain and storm chances this afternoon, the highest
coverage of activity is expected from Daytona Beach/Titusville
westward to the Orlando and Leesburg area. Isolated showers are
forecast to increase from north to south, in association with
greater moisture pushing south over the FL Peninsula. Steering
flow will remain light and northeasterly. As the east coast breeze
begins to move inland, additional convection is forecast to
develop and push west of I-95. Forecast soundings indicate warm
500mb temperatures, between -4C and -5C, which will work to
suppress updrafts. However, the atmosphere will be primed with
plenty of moisture and instability. This, combined with the sea
breeze and other storm-scale boundary collisions, will be enough
to set off scattered showers and storms from mid afternoon through
early evening. Gusty winds up to 40-45 mph, occasional to
frequent lightning strikes, and heavy downpours that lead to
minor, short-lived flooding are the main concerns.

For those wondering how rain could affect 4th of July festivities,
timing and location is key. Showers and storms may linger through
sunset, from Lake County south to the Kissimmee River, before
gradually dissipating. East of the Orlando area and toward the
coast, the forecast calls for drier conditions by sunset.

Friday-Sunday...The overall pattern goes largely unchanged late
week into the weekend, with mid level ridging overhead and diurnal
rain/storms driven by the east coast sea breeze. One hindrance to
higher PoPs, especially later Friday through Saturday, will be a
lobe of drier air that splits off from a mid level low over the
western Atlantic. This pocket of lower moisture looks to stick
around through Saturday, especially closer to the coast, keeping
the highest rain chances focused inland as the sea breeze advances
west each afternoon. Moisture return and southerly flow begins to
erode the lower PW on Sunday, helping to reinvigorate rain and
storm chances. Daytime temperatures stay hot in the low to mid 90s
with heat indices 102-107+. The warmest locations will be inland,
and additional heat advisories may need to be considered this
weekend into early next week. Nighttime lows only fall into the
mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Wednesday...Upper level ridging weakens a bit next week
but maintains its influence on our weather pattern. As a tropical
wave pushes west across the Carribean and Yucatan Monday,
relatively lower PWs wrap northward in its wake, across southern
FL and the Gulf of Mexico. Nevertheless, near 2" PW hold over
north-central FL. Low-level flow over our area becomes more
southerly, perhaps even SSW, on Monday and Tuesday. As a result,
40-60 PoP was maintained in the extended period. Confidence lowers
somewhat by midweek in rain chances, so PoPs were kept in the
chance category Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance keeps highs in the
low to mid 90s through early week, with perhaps a slight downward
trend due to rain chances and associated cloud cover.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions are
forecast, outside of daytime isolated/scattered showers and
lightning storms. Light and variable winds persist through midday,
increasing up to 10 kt and turning onshore with the sea breeze
circulation this afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft, perhaps up to 4 ft well
offshore. Winds slacken and veer offshore tonight.

Friday-Monday...Seas remain 2-4 ft thru the extended forecast.
Winds turn out of the NNE Friday and Saturday mornings, veering
onshore each afternoon and then offshore at night. Rain and
lightning storm chances continue but decrease temporarily for the
first half of the weekend. Southerly flow and increased moisture
returns Sunday and Monday, helping to expand rain coverage into
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  76  92  75 /  50  10  30  10
MCO  94  77  94  76 /  70  30  50  10
MLB  92  77  91  76 /  40  10  40  10
VRB  92  76  91  75 /  20  10  40  10
LEE  94  78  94  77 /  70  30  60  10
SFB  93  77  93  76 /  60  20  50  10
ORL  94  78  93  77 /  70  30  50  10
FPR  92  76  91  76 /  20  20  50  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Fehling