017
FXUS62 KMLB 081752
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. Showers have
begun to develop prior to 18Z, so VCSH/VCTS has been included for
all sites. Expect to see coverage of showers and storms increase
through the afternoon, especially along the slow moving east coast
sea breeze. CAMs suggest a collision over east central Florida, with
storms occurring around 19-24Z. Tempos have been included for
CIG/VIS reductions. Activity is forecast to diminish this evening,
though VCTS will likely linger through 2Z. Then, drier conditions
prevailing, with light and variable winds overnight. Tuesday,
west-southwesterly winds, with a few showers beginning late
morning and additional showers and storms in the afternoon hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Pattern change forecast today, with subtropical ridge axis south
of the area producing a relatively light SW low level flow across
the region. This offshore flow will lead to rising PW values
through the afternoon. Morning sounding from the Cape shows PW
value of 1.8", but model guidance and GOES-16 TPW imagery
indicates PW values should be able to rise to 2.0-2.3" as the day
progresses. S/SW 925mb winds around 5-10 knots will still be able
to allow the east coast sea breeze to form, but should be slower
to develop, due to a slightly stronger and more offshore
component of these winds south of the Cape. This in turn should
also allow the sea breeze to move a little farther inland near to
north of the Cape, while boundary may be pinned closer to the
coast across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be able to develop,
with greatest coverage occurring from mid afternoon through
sunset across east central FL where boundary collisions between
sea breeze and storm outflow boundaries are more likely. PoPs
continue to remain above normal, around 60-80 percent, with slower
storm motion leading to an elevated threat of locally heavy
rainfall up to 1-3" from any storms, with localized totals of 4+
inches possible. Additional storm threats will include frequent
lightning strikes and strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph.

A ridge aloft across the area, sitting between a cut off low over
the west Atlantic and Hurricane Beryl lifting N/NE over east Texas
will lead to hot conditions today. Highs will climb to the mid to
upper 90s and combine with increasing moisture and humidity to
produce peak heat index values around 106-112F this afternoon.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of east central Florida
from 11AM to 6PM today. This level of heat can affect anyone
without adequate precautions. It is recommended to take frequent
breaks from the heat and drink plenty of fluids. Developing storms
and increasing clouds later in the day will gradually bring some
relief to the heat later in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 618 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Currently-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
outside of lighting storms. Scattered showers and lightning
storms are forecast each afternoon and early evening. Isolated
storms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall,
occasional to frequent lightning strikes and wind gusts up to
40-50mph. Light southwest winds back southeast this afternoon
with the sea breeze at 6-12kts with predominate south-southwest
winds Tuesday at 6-12kts. Seas are forecast to build up to 1-3ft.

Wednesday-Friday... Boating conditions remain favorable outside of
lightning storms. Offshore flow is forecast to develop mid to
late week with a greater chance for offshore moving showers and
lighting storms capable of gusty winds and occasional to frequent
lighting strikes. West to southwest winds at 5-10kts are expected
through Thursday with onshore winds forecast to develop into
Friday afternoon. Seas are forecast to build up to 1-3ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  75  92 /  50  70  50  70
MCO  77  90  76  90 /  50  70  40  60
MLB  76  90  74  90 /  50  70  50  60
VRB  76  90  74  90 /  50  70  50  60
LEE  78  90  77  90 /  50  70  40  50
SFB  77  90  76  91 /  50  70  50  60
ORL  78  90  77  91 /  50  70  40  60
FPR  76  90  74  90 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Leahy