775
FXUS62 KMLB 071817
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
217 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions prevail outside out TS. Nudged VCTS start at
inland terminals a little later to 22Z-23Z and continuing through
02Z, with 19Z now just VCSH based on a slow start to convection
and latest hi-res guidance. Only TEMPO for TS impacts remains at
KLEE 23Z-01Z. Flow regime becomes more southwesterly Monday,
resulting in slower inland progression of the ECSB and a collision
over the eastern half of the peninsula, and thus higher coverage
of TS. Started VCTS for KMCO at 19Z, and expecting most or all
other terminals to follow along in later packages. TEMPOs likely
as well.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A few updates to increase PoPs slightly over the interior this
evening. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

Satellite imagery this morning indicates PWATs remain around 1.5"
over most of the area, with locations across the northwestern CWA
closer to 2". Some recovery is forecast, with global models
indicting PWATs increasing to around 1.8-2" for most of the area
by late this afternoon. Lingering drier air and warm temperatures
aloft (-4/-5C) should limit convection for coastal locations
today. Meanwhile, southerly flow will allow for a more centralized
sea breeze collision this afternoon, with higher PoPs forecast
over the interior. PoPs generally 30-50% west of I-95. CAMs show
the greatest coverage over Lake County and the Kissimmee River.
The primary storm threats continue to be gusty winds up to 45 mph,
occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy rain
that could lead to minor, nuisance flooding. Any convection that
develops will diminish by late this evening.

Hot temperatures continues today, with high temperatures in the
mid-90s. Humid conditions will produce heat indices 102 to 107
across much of east central Florida, especially west of I-95. If
outdoors, plan to take frequent breaks in air conditioning or
shaded areas, stay well-hydrated, and know the signs of heat
stress. This level of heat can affect anyone without adequate
cooling and hydration.

A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues along the
coast from Indian River County northward. Entering the water is
strongly discouraged in this area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions continue into the middle
of next week, outside of increasing shower/lightning storm
activity; offshore moving Mon-Wed. Seas mainly 2-3 ft and perhaps
a little higher invof lightning storms next week. The pressure
gradient will remain fairly weak supporting a daily sea breeze
thru Tue. Light offshore winds will develop each evening and
overnight, becoming more prevailing into mid-week, and continue
to keep wind speeds during the period AOB 15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  94  77  91 /  20  70  40  70
MCO  78  95  78  90 /  20  70  30  60
MLB  77  93  77  91 /  20  70  40  70
VRB  77  94  75  90 /  20  70  40  60
LEE  79  94  78  90 /  40  70  30  70
SFB  78  95  78  91 /  20  70  30  60
ORL  80  95  78  91 /  20  70  30  60
FPR  77  94  75  90 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Haley