365
FXUS62 KMLB 281437
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1037 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Scattered shower and isolated lightning storms are streaming
onshore of the west coast of Florida this morning. This activity
is pushing eastward around 10 mph, and moving into ECFL as of 1030
AM, mainly across Lake/Volusia counties. The Bermuda high axis
will shift slightly northward into south Florida today, resulting
in the east coast sea breeze forming and pushing a little farther
inland today. The 10Z XMR sounding shows a somewhat moist profile,
with PW value of 1.75", however there is some drier air in the
mid to upper levels. Forecast PW values increase into this
afternoon (PW values ranging form 2.0-2.3"), which with daytime
heating, will support scattered to numerous showers and lightning
storms to develop this afternoon and early evening. Have
maintained higher coverage of PoPs (60-70 percent) this afternoon
and early evening, with the greatest coverage of storms occurring
along any boundary collision from the sea breeze and outflow
boundaries, which look to occur west of the I-95 corridor across
east central FL. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning
strikes, gusty winds of 40-45 mph, and heavy downpours. Some
storms may be strong. Despite the weakening westerly steering flow
through the day, storms are expected to move back towards the
coast and offshore through late afternoon/evening. Hot and muggy
conditions persist with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s
with peak heat indices ranging from 102-107 degrees. Forecast
remains on track with only minor adjustments to rain and storm
chances into tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

IMPACT:
- Numerous afternoon/evening storms expected beyond 28/18Z.
  Restrictions to IFR, gusts to 30-40 KT possible.

It`s rain-free out there this morning, but that should change
through the day as plentiful moisture interacts with the sea
breeze. 20-30% shower chances at LEE from mid-morning through
midday, then 50-70% chances for storms at all terminals from 18Z
through around 00Z. Beneath storm cores, a few gusts 30-40 KT and
frequent lightning are expected, along with brief MVFR to IFR
visibilities. SW winds 5-12 KT will turn to the ESE for the
coastal terminals after 16-18Z. There is a low (20%) chance for
some patchy ground fog on Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Today-Tonight...Relatively light offshore flow around 5-10 knots
will become E/SE into the afternoon up to around 10 knots closer to
the coast as sea breeze forms and moves inland. Winds then veer to
the S/SW into tonight, remaining around 5-10 knots. Seas will range
from 1-3 feet. Main concern for boaters will be the potential for
some storms to move back toward the coast and just offshore into the
afternoon and evening. Frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds
will occur with any stronger storms.

Saturday-Tuesday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west
Atlantic moves back northward across the waters into the weekend and
early next week. Southerly flow each morning will become onshore
into the afternoon as sea breeze will be able to form each day and
push inland. Sea breeze generated showers and storms each afternoon
should largely remain over land areas, but isolated to scattered
showers and storms will still be possible over the coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  90  75 /  70  40  70  40
MCO  93  77  92  76 /  70  30  70  40
MLB  92  76  90  76 /  70  40  60  40
VRB  92  75  90  75 /  60  40  60  40
LEE  92  78  93  77 /  70  30  70  40
SFB  94  76  92  76 /  70  30  70  40
ORL  93  77  92  77 /  70  30  70  40
FPR  92  75  90  75 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Heil