594
FXUS62 KMLB 290146
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
946 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A pretty rainy afternoon for east central Florida. Radar
estimates show just about everyone got a 1/4 inch of rain, with
the exception of a band from Deltona to Holopaw that saw lower
amounts. Many areas got 2 inches or more, and upwards of 4-5
inches of rain fell across much of the southern counties. Made
some adjustments to PoPs through the evening based on trends and
latest HRRR, keeping them 50-60 pct across the interior through
about 9 PM. Rest of the forecast held up well with no significant
changes needed. Still seeing deep convection down south in Palm
Beach County, which could creep its way back north into Martin
through the next couple hours, so keeping PoPs down there 30 pct
until midnight. Otherwise, the last of the debris showers should
dissipate by 11 PM (most sooner), with mostly quiet conditions the
rest of the night.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Key Messages...

-Scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and storms forecast
 to continue over the next several days, with a few stronger
 storms possible each day.

-Hot and humid conditions persist, with highs in the low to mid
 90s and peak heat index values around 102-107.

Current-Tonight... Scattered to numerous showers and lightning
storms have developed and are pushing eastward across the local area
and offshore. The east coast sea breeze has formed and is pushing
inland this afternoon, with additional showers and storms developing
along the sea breeze as storms and outflow boundaries interact with
the sea breeze. Temperatures as of 3 PM are in the mid to upper 80s,
to even low 90s across the south.

The Bermuda high axis has shifted slightly northward into south
Florida today, resulting in the east coast sea breeze pushing a
little farther inland this afternoon. The 15Z XMR sounding shows
increased moisture, with a PW value of 1.96" and is fairly moist
through the column. This ample moisture, mixed with daytime heating,
will support scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
through this evening. PoPs 60-70 percent into early evening, with
highest coverage of storms occurring along any boundary collision
from the sea breeze and outflow boundaries, mainly west of the I-95
corridor across east central FL. Main storm hazards will be frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-45 mph, and heavy downpours.
Some storms may be strong. Despite the weakening westerly steering
flow through the day, storms are expected to move back towards the
coast and offshore through late afternoon/evening. Hot and muggy
conditions persist with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with
peak heat indices ranging from 102-107 degrees.

Any lingering showers and storms are expected to dissipate or move
out of the local area by midnight. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions
over land areas tonight after midnight. Seasonable and humid
conditions tonight, with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Sunday...The ridge axis of high pressure in the west
Atlantic will continue to lift northward across the area into the
weekend, resulting in low level winds weakening. The east coast sea
breeze will form each afternoon and push even farther inland than
today. The moist airmass remains in place on Saturday, with PW
values ranging from 2.2-2.5", which will support higher rain and
storm coverage (PoP 60-70 percent) across much of the area. Moisture
decreases slightly over the area on Sunday, with PW values ranging
from 1.9-2.2". Onshore flow will increase on Sunday, focusing
greatest rain chances inland, with PoPs ranging from 50 percent
along the coast and around 60 percent across the interior. Main
storm threats through the weekend will strong wind gusts, lightning
strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. A few storms may be strong.

Temperatures will be seasonable through the weekend, with afternoon
highs in the low 90s with humid conditions continuing to produce
peak heat index values around 102-107. Overnight lows remain in the
70s.

Monday-Friday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Weak front moves
into the southeast U.S. into early next week and will gradually
weaken, with subtropical ridge axis continuing to generally extend
across the FL peninsula. Sufficient moisture remains in place for at
least scattered showers and storms each day, with greatest rain
chances over the interior where late day boundary collisions will be
favored. Ridge aloft over the south central U.S. will extend
eastward and into Florida, with highs in the mid 90s returning from
some interior locations, and remaining in the low 90s at the coast.
Heat index values are forecast to continue to peak around 102-107
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 829 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Widespread debris -RA left over from this afternoon`s TS
producing MVFR VIS impacts at all ECFL terminals except KTIX. Most
of this should dissipate between 02Z-03Z, but could linger INVOF
one or two terminals until around 04Z, most likely those along the
Treasure Coast. After this -RA clears, VFR conditions prevail
through the rest of the night and into Saturday morning, then
another afternoon of SCT-NUM TS expected. Generally light
southerly winds overnight becoming easterly 5-10 kts Saturday
afternoon after the sea breeze pushes through.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will shift slightly northward
across South Florida into tonight. S/SW flow has shifted SE/S this
afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to S/SW
overnight, with speeds generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft
across the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft across the offshore waters.
Scattered offshore moving showers and lightning storms will be
possible this afternoon and evening with isolated to scattered
showers and storms possible through the overnight, especially in the
offshore waters.

Saturday-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis of
high pressure over the west Atlantic moves back northward across the
waters into the weekend and early next week. Southerly flow each
morning will become onshore into the afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze will be able to form each day and push inland. Sea breeze
generated showers and storms each afternoon should largely remain
over land areas, but isolated to scattered showers and storms will
still be possible over the coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  76  91 /  40  60  40  40
MCO  77  91  76  91 /  40  70  30  60
MLB  76  90  76  90 /  50  60  30  40
VRB  75  90  76  90 /  50  50  30  40
LEE  78  93  77  93 /  50  70  30  60
SFB  76  92  76  92 /  40  70  30  60
ORL  77  93  77  92 /  40  70  30  60
FPR  75  90  76  90 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Haley