366
FXUS62 KMLB 072319
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
719 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions forecast through the period. VCSH possible at LEE
over the next hour or so as the sea breeze moves across the area,
though confidence remains low. Otherwise, light and variable winds
with mostly dry conditions forecast overnight. Winds picking up
out of the SE along the coast after 17Z as the sea breeze develops
and attempts to move inland, with VCTS possible. Winds out of the
SW across the interior terminals after 19Z with VCTS possible as
the west coast sea breeze moves across the area. VCTS conditions
will continue through much of the afternoon into the early evening
hours as the sea breeze collision occurs across east central
Florida, with activity likely not diminishing until after 02Z.
Left TEMPOs out for now but will likely need to add some in once
timing of storms becomes more apparent.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

- A high risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents
  for portions of the coast continues through at least today.

- An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues
  through early this week.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase into mid-week.

Rest of Today-Tonight...Lingering drier air has so far prevented
any showers or storms from developing over the forecast area.
However, satellite data shows PWATs are recovering, with northern
portions of the area now 1.8-2". Areas along and inland from the
Treasure Coast remain drier, at around 1.6". CAMs continue to
suggest a sea breeze collision late this afternoon into this
evening just west of Orlando. Southerly winds have led to a much
slower east coast sea breeze than previous days, with the boundary
still remaining in the coastal counties as of around 330pm. PoPs
remain 30-50% west of I-95 this afternoon, with chances up to
30-40% lingering into this evening over the interior. Any
convection that develops is forecast to diminish by around
midnight. The primary storm threats continue to be gusty winds up
to 45 mph, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and locally
heavy rain that could lead to minor, nuisance flooding. A limiting
factor to any convection will be warmer temperatures aloft of -4
to -5C.

Temperatures have crept into the lower 90s along the coast and
mid-90s inland, with widespread heat indices 100-107 degrees.
Warm, muggy conditions will persist overnight, with morning low
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Tuesday...A mid/upper level low over the western Atlantic
drifts southeastward towards the local area through the period
while weakening. Meanwhile, available moisture greatly increases,
becoming up to 2.3", though temperatures aloft remain warm at
around -4 to -6C at 500mb. Increasing moisture and instability
aloft paired with developing light offshore flow will lead to
increased shower and thunderstorm chances through mid-week. PoPs
becoming 60-70% area wide, as the east coast sea breeze develops,
but struggles to move inland. The greatest coverage looks to be in
the afternoon and evening hours, with chances diminishing into the
overnight.

Hot temperatures continue on Monday, as highs reach the mid to
upper 90s. Increasing moisture will also lead to heat indices of
106-110 during the afternoon. A Heat Advisory looks to be needed
for at least portions of the area, though will hold off for now to
wait for the latest model guidance. By Tuesday, increased cloud
cover looks to keep highs in the lower 90s, with heat indices
returning to 102-107. Overnight lows remain in the mid to upper
70s.

Wed-Sat (previous)...Conditions aloft remain a bit unsettled with
troughiness and PWATs remaining around 2 inches. An offshore wind
component develops by mid-week, reverting back to onshore again
late in the period. Daily sea breezes (Thu-Sat) with initial
inherited offshore steering flow, weakening and becoming more
variable. Keeping PoPs around 60pct areawide each
afternoon/evening. Highs in the U80s to L90s each day, with clouds
and onset/extent of inland moving sea breezes the deciding factor
in the lower end of high max potential. Lows continue mainly in
the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions continue this week.
Southerly winds today and Monday will veer then offshore into
mid-week. However, will see winds back southeasterly each
afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under
15kts. Seas 1-3ft. Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances into
mid-week, with storms increasingly moving offshore, as southwest
to westerly winds develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  94  77  91 /  20  70  40  70
MCO  78  95  78  90 /  20  70  30  60
MLB  77  93  77  91 /  20  70  40  70
VRB  77  94  75  90 /  20  70  40  60
LEE  79  94  78  90 /  40  70  30  70
SFB  78  95  78  91 /  20  70  30  60
ORL  80  95  78  91 /  20  70  30  60
FPR  77  94  75  90 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Tollefsen